2013 NFL RB Speed Scores
Every year at NFL combine time fanalysts like myself pay special attention to two skill positions a little more closely than others, the wide receivers and the running backs.
Today we will be discussing the running back class and their 40-times and what ‘speed score’ their speed and weight combination led to.
The speed score is not an end all, be all predictor of NFL success but it sure does help to validate the hype on certain players as well as open your eyes up to players we might want to pay a little closer attention to.
The most recent players pegged for success by this metric include DeMarco Murray, Ben Tate, CJ Spiller, Doug Martin and Lamar Miller.
What is a speed score?
“Speed Score: A method for projecting the NFL success of a rookie running back which combines a player’s weight with his 40-yard dash time from the NFL scouting combine, thus accounting for the fact that a larger back is more likely to be a good NFL player than a small back with the same speed. Speed Scores generally range from 80 to 120, with 100 as the average. Introduced on ESPN.com in the spring of 2008, with a more expanded introduction in Pro Football Prospectus 2008.”
Source: Football Outsiders“Keeping this in mind, we’ve developed a metric called “Speed Score”, which takes into account both a player’s time in the 40-yard dash at the Combine as well as his weight. Speed Score bears a significant correlation to NFL carries (a correlation coefficient of .46 and a sign of a player’s durability), yards (.46), and DYAR (.37), all at a level superior to that of strictly using the 40-yard dash time alone.
The metric is calculated by multiplying the player’s weight by 200, and then dividing that figure by his 40 time, taken to the fourth power. Although it sounds like a bizarre calculation, the whole thing is pretty simple. 40 time is multiplied to the fourth power because of the huge difference there is in hundredths of a second for a player running the 40. The weight is multiplied by 200 to scale the metric so that an average Speed Score is just about 100. The average for first-round picks in the NFL Draft is 112.9.”
Source: Washington Post
Top scores this year
Kniles Davis is this years speed score darling followed by another prospect in Le’Veon Bell who similarly lost a lot of his hype this season.
Kniles Davis – 124.5
Le’Veon Bell – 102.7
Joseph Randle – 88.8
Andre Ellington – 88.1
Mike Gillislee – 97.1
Giovanni Bernard – 95.9
Mike James – 105.9
Christine Michael – 103.6
Montee Ball – 90.8
Marcus Lattimore – Did not run
Eddie Lacy – Did not run
What did we learn?
Kniles Davis, who finished with a terrific speed score of 124.5 should now be a top consideration in all dynasty rookie drafts, and vie to be one of the top three backs selected behind Eddie Lacy. Davis also proved incredibly strong for a running back posting 31 reps which ranked him 2nd among all running backs in the 2013 class. Davis came in the top ten for broad jump which measures explosion and 15th in the 20 yard shuttle which also measures explosion as well as lateral quickness and cutting ability.
Montee Ball’s speed score was disappointing due to his 4.66 40 time but is someone we will still have on our radar depending on what team he lands on. Ball is still a talent and could really be an asset in touchdown heavy league formats.
Giovanni Bernard and Mike Gillislee also had disappointing speed scores but are both pegged for success at the NFL level, the question now is whether they are feature back material or not.
Joseph Randle and Andre Ellington were extremely disappointing as sub 205 lbs players who both could not crack 4.5. Both proved in college to be talented players and could still find themselves as the lead back in the inevitable committees they will join this year.
Names we were not giving much thought before
Last years speed score compilation led us to look harder at the Seahawks Robert Turbin and the Ravens Bernard Pierce, two powerful runners who put themselves in the mix as day two prospects. Pierce and Turbin both went on to carve out roles in backfields formerly dominated by two of the NFL’s best running backs. Cyrus Gray was the third name, but he never got involved in the Chiefs gameplans carrying the ball only seven times in the three games he actually saw the field.
This year Le’Veon Bell and Christine Michael will get a bump up our dynasty league rookie rankings as landing in the right system could lead to success for either player on the NFL level.
Michael was the star of the 20 yard shuttle and was a top finisher in the broad jump and he is now firmly on our radar as well as many NFL teams’
Jackie Battle and Alfred Morris
Jackie Battle had one of the best speed scores in recent memory with a 123.1 but has never proven to be an effective NFL player despite glimpses, especially this season when Ryan Mathews was sidelined, Alfred Morris on the other hand had a speed score of 98 which correctly predicted him as a day three pick but as we all witnessed he landed in the perfect system and rushed for the 2nd most yards in the entire NFL in his rookie season and set a Redskins record for rushing yards by a rookie (and this is with RGIII stealing numerous carries).
Other combine testing and what it told us
The 20 yard shuttle and broad jump help measure explosiveness while the shuttle also helps to indicate lateral quickness and cutting ability. Christine Michael of Texas A&M was 1st in the shuttle and 3rd in the broad jump and his combine numbers make him look like a solid day two prospect. He is someone that was not particularly on our radar after other names emerged this season but he is now one of our top sleepers for 2013 and where he lands will determine his actual value in dynasty league rookie drafts.
Giovanni Bernard had a solid 20 yard shuttle time that landed him 3rd among all prospects and also posted a good broad jump, Bernard’s 40 time was disappointing but he showed that he has the quickness and explosiveness desired in a day two pick. Bernard may land in a two back system at the next level but is someone with featured skills.
Le’Veon Bell had a top ten 20 yard shuttle time which entrenched him as a potential 3rd or 4th round pick for a team that already has a speedy back in the fold. Bell 4.6 40 time does not impress anyone but at 230 lbs with his lateral quickness, Bell could become a fantasy star on the right team. Bell has some things to work on in the pros including his pass protection skills and vision in the backfield but is the type of running back fanalysts get very excited about after testing well at the combine.
Updated Dynasty League Rookie Running Back Rankings
Eddie Lacy
Kniles Davis
Marcus Lattimore
Giovanni Bernard
Mike Gillislee
Christine Michael
Le’Veon Bell
Montee Ball
Joseph Randle
Andre Ellington
