Justin Blackmon to the Jaguars: Fantasy Analysis
The Jaguars decided to trade up a couple of spots with the Bucs to land the 2012 NFL Draft’s number one wideout prospect in Justin Blackmon.
Blackmon has a ton of talent and skill and would make an immediate impact on almost any team in the NFL…we are not too sure that the Jags are one of them.
Quarterback troubles notwithstanding Blackmon is projected to become a prolific receiver in the NFL, whom although he may not have the skills of a true number one wideout, can and will produce like one.
Here is what others had to say about Blackmon:
“Credit to the Jaguars for moving up in the draft and landing the top talent at WR. The Oklahoma State standout has the ability to beat press coverage and make plays in the three-step game. However, as much as I like Jacksonville’s aggressiveness, they would have been better served to take the more talented prospect in CB Morris Claiborne. NFL Ceiling: Anquan Boldin-type wideout. NFL floor: Michael Crabtree-type wideout.”
“Blackmon has room for improvement in terms of his route-running, but has the natural ability to make those improvements. He’s a playmaker who can come down with 50-50 balls downfield and can catch it underneath and turn it into a big play. He should quickly turn into a No. 1 receiver.”
“This was the worst pass offense in the NFL a year ago. Of course, part of the problem was QB Blaine Gabbert, however, it has been the worst receiving corps in the NFL for the past few years. The Jaguars did sign free agent Laurent Robinson from Dallas and Mike Thomas has a chance to be OK, but now they have a difference-maker and a guy who can stretch the field. All of a sudden, this pathetic passing game now has a three-wide receiver set and a nickel package that can actually threaten some defenses. This has been a short, conservative passing game in the past because they had no choice. Now, they can air it out with Blackmon or they can let him take those short to intermediate passes where he can run after the catch.”
Justin Blackmon – Blackmon is a great physical talent. As stated above he still could use some work on his routes and separation skills, but has all the tangibles and intangibles to be a prolific receiver in the NFL for the next decade. He has a WR1 ceiling but is expected to play at a WR2 level in year one due to Gabbert’s ineffectiveness thus far in the NFL. He is someone who can quickly become a PPR dynamo ranking among league leaders in receptions, targets and perhaps touchdowns once Gabbert gets the NFL figured out. In dynasty leagues he should be the first receiver off the board despite his unfriendly QB situation. He should also be a top-five pick overall, and in consideration anytime after Trent Richardson is off the board.
Laurent Robinson – With the addition of Blackmon, Robinson will eventually be relegated to the number two role he is more ideally suited for. With that said however NFL defenses will not quickly forget his breakout 2011 campaign which will lead to defensive coordinators initially targeting Robinson as the Jags number one wideout over the more talented Blackmon. We expect Robinson to struggle in the number one role and dont expect him to be overly productive until he goes back to facing single coverage across from Blackmon. We like Robinson as a WR3 with a flex floor and WR2 upside.
Lee Evans/Mike Thomas – Thomas will reportedly get most of the snaps in the slot, but we believe that Evans will be used on the outside in some sets with either Blackmon or Robinson moved to create havoc in the slot. Thomas has talent but Evans is a legitimate vertical threat who can help stretch the field on every play and with Blackmon’s physical style of play and Robinson’s resounding success as a number three last year, we at least expect the Jaguars to experiment with different combinations in order to take advantage of their various receivers strengths.
Blaine Gabbert – Gabbert’s play in 2011 did not elicit any confidence, especially from naysayers who never believed he was better than Jake Locker never mind the clueless ‘draftniks’ who claimed he was better than Cam Newton and in the mix to go number one overall to the Panthers. Gabbert was put in a position to fail last year with a receiver corps that was even worse than the ones handed to JaMarcus Russell during his time with the Raiders. The addition of Blackmon at least gives him some potential superstar talent to work with and bumps him up to the very low-end of the QB2 spectrum.
Maurice Jones-Drew – If there is anyone in Jacksonville happier about the Jaguars off-season additions than Gabbert, his name is MJD. Dead last in the league in passing yards in 2011 with a meager 156.9 per game, MJD still managed to lead the NFL in rushing and propel the Jaguars to a top-12 rushing attack. Though he may not receive the 24 touches a game he did last season, once again eclipsing the 300 carry mark and 1,600 rushing yards is not out of the question as he is expected to run at perhaps the highest yards per carry clip since his rookie season. MJD is locked in as an RB1 and we encourage you to remember that MJD rushed for 100 yards per game despite lingering injury issues which affected his ADP last year. MJD is a beast and now that the Jaguars have legit weapons in the passing game for the first time since MJD has been there, he might just become unstoppable.
Now for some highlights:
Written by Win My Fantasy League Senior Sports Writer/Fantasy Sports Analyst Raju Byfield (Rizzla).