QB Rankings
Analysis:
Michael Vick or Aaron Rodgers? That is the question.
Many fantasy football G.M’s will be debating the same question on draft day and Aaron Rodgers is the safer pick. Much like we did when we suggested going with the consistent and steady Adrian Peterson over Arian Foster number one overall, we suggest going with the sure thing. Sure Vick may outscore Aaron Rodgers this season, but with Rodgers you are assured that you are getting a top-3 QB, with Michael Vick the floor is much, much lower. As ESPN put it: Vick is still the greatest singular fantasy talent but there is much more risk associated with choosing Vick over Rodgers as the 1st QB off the board.
Matthew Stafford is ranked as a top-12 QB by everyone but ESPN who has him ranked 17th. Stafford is likely a lock to be a top-12 QB if he can make it through the season, something he has yet to do in his brief career. With Mikel LeShoure lost for the season the Lions will continue to throw a lot and with the exciting Titus Young joining the wide receiver corps Stafford will only continue to improve, health permitting of course. Pro Football Focus has him ticketed for 27 TD’s and 15 INT’s which is drastically higher than ESPN’s projection of an 18:14 TD:INT ratio. Funny thing is ESPN actually thought they rated Stafford high. Stafford is a low-end QB1 with immense upside and his number will be closer to PFF’s projections this year.
Sam Bradford is ranked from 14 to 17 by these five sites, right in the range of Joe Flacco and Jay Cutler. My initial reaction is that it was a bit high based on the two names surrounding him but it is a good ranking looking at the names above and below. Bradford is going to become a really special QB in the NFL as soon as he gets an elite wide receiver. For now he will have to deal with a bunch of number two type receivers and reap the benefits on playing under one of the top offensive coordinators in the NFL in former Bronco’s coach Josh McDaniels. Pro Football Focus has him ticketed for a 24:14 TD to INT ratio.
Kevin Kolb’s value is one that is highly debated. There is no doubt he has the tools to succeed, its just that he face planted in 2010 which is leading some to a distorted perception of this player and his true skills. He is ranked as low as 23 by Pro Football Focus and as high as 11 by Yahoo! Sports’ Brad Evans and Andy Behrens. ESPN despite projecting him for a 26:17 TD to INT ratio this season projects that he will get under 3000 yards passing and made it clear that Kolb is only a backup in fantasy for this season. We agree and would not suggest taking Kolb as your top QB but you may not be able to find a better QB2 due to Kolb’s low end QB1 upside.
Matt Ryan finally has the number two receiver that can help ascend him to the echelon of elite fantasy signal callers. With Julio Jones now in town, Ryan has two legit number one receivers and the Falcons realizing this intend to open the offense up and pass a lot more than they have in recent years. Ryan is ranked anywhere from 8 to 11 and could prove to be an absolute ADP steal when this season is all said and done. I thought last year would be the one where Ryan took the next step in his development, and while he did, we feel that he has another step or two to make in 2011 with Julio Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers in town.
