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Analysis:
I am sure the first question is: “Who should I draft number one?”
The debate here really boils down to two players, the players being Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster. Here at Win My Fantasy League we recommend the always consistent Adrian Peterson over Arian Foster. There are strong arguments for both but we suggest that that with Peterson you know what you are getting year in and year out, while number one backs such as DeAngelo Williams and Chris Johnson have failed to repeat the next year.
The top rookie running backs in this draft class for redraft leagues are Daniel Thomas of the Miami Dolphins and Mark Ingram of the New Orleans Saints. Both make the top-25 on all of the standard scoring lists while we feel that health permitting that Daniel Thomas will make more of an impact in his rookie season despite Mark Ingram being the more talented prospect. Ingram simply has a lot of competition in Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory. Ryan Williams of the Cardinals is another running back who should be drafted in all redraft leagues.
Jamaal Charles seems poised for a big season and only his head coach or injuries can hold him back from having a career year. The Chiefs did add LeRon McLain but will look to get Charles close to 300 carries this year.
Ray Rice is still getting a lot of fantasy love this year as pundits believe that Ricky Williams is more of a pure backup than McGahee was, this essentially means that while Ricky will get more carries than McGahee did last season he will give way to Rice in goal-line situations balancing out and perhaps making Rice even more valuable this year.
LeSean McCoy is now considered a top-10 fantasy running back despite the addition of the talented Ronnie Brown. Make no mistakes this is still McCoy’s backfield, Brown was brought in as a precautionary veteran backup; if McCoy goes down the Eagles will expect not to miss a beat with Ronnie Brown as the starter.
Last years waiver wire diamonds in the rough Peyton Hillis and LeGarette Blount are both now considered top-20 running backs and hope to build on their breakout campaigns. Hillis will likely see a slight decrease in his numbers while Blount should see an increase in his numbers.
Second year players Montario Hardesty and Ben Tate will not impact the starters on their teams as much as originally anticipated in part due to injuries and in part due to the lack of an off-season. Foster and Hillis remain top-20 running back options due to the injuries these two talented sophomores suffered in training camp.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ value is highly debated but we recommend steering clear of BGE. He is in a ridiculously crowded backfield where he is not close to the most talented player. His only advantage in the early season will be his firmer grasp on the playbook and protections than rookies Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley. BGE has top-30 back potential in this offense but we envision a true RBBC approach being employed by Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots.
Ryan Mathews may be the lead back on paper in San Diego but the best we can hope for without an injury to Tolbert is a 60/40 split in favor of Mathews. Tolbert is also the goal-line back which significantly hurts Mathews’ value. Both will be serviceable running backs, just be warned that Mathews will likely still not live up to his true potential this season.
Potential sleepers at the running back position include: Mike Tolbert, Tim Hightower, Ryan Williams, C.J Spiller, James Starks, Roy Helu, Darren Sproles, Delone Carter, Shane Vereen and DeMarco Murray.
Must have handcuffs include: Javon Ringer, Rashad Jennings, Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, Michael Bush, Ben Tate, Marion Barber, James Starks and Jason Snelling.
