The running back portion of the NFL combine is now in the books and there have been some interesting developments.
Da’Rel Scott of Mayland had a 4.34 40 time, which at 5’11 and 205 pounds is a impressive time.
Mario Fannin of Auburn posted a 4.38 at 220 pounds and posted a new speed score record of 126…which places him even higher than Brandon Jacobs and Chris Johnson.
What is a Speed Score?
“Speed Score: A method for projecting the NFL success of a rookie running back which combines a player’s weight with his 40-yard dash time from the NFL scouting combine, thus accounting for the fact that a larger back is more likely to be a good NFL player than a small back with the same speed. Speed Scores generally range from 80 to 120, with 100 as the average. Introduced on ESPN.com in the spring of 2008, with a more expanded introduction in Pro Football Prospectus 2008.”Source: Football Outsiders
“Keeping this in mind, we’ve developed a metric called “Speed Score”, which takes into account both a player’s time in the 40-yard dash at the Combine as well as his weight. Speed Score bears a significant correlation to NFL carries (a correlation coefficient of .46 and a sign of a player’s durability), yards (.46), and DYAR (.37), all at a level superior to that of strictly using the 40-yard dash time alone.
The metric is calculated by multiplying the player’s weight by 200, and then dividing that figure by his 40 time, taken to the fourth power. Although it sounds like a bizarre calculation, the whole thing is pretty simple. 40 time is multiplied to the fourth power because of the huge difference there is in hundredths of a second for a player running the 40. The weight is multiplied by 200 to scale the metric so that an average Speed Score is just about 100. The average for first-round picks in the NFL Draft is 112.9.”Source: Washington Post
For a full list of speed scores you can visit Bolts from the Blue, but here are some of the other noteworthy scores and names.
Mark Ingram – 98
Ryan Williams – 99
Mikel Leshoure – 105
Shane Vereen – 102
DeMarco Murray -113
Allen Bradford – 110
Ray Helu – 115
Mario Fannin – 126
I have to admit that Mario Fannin was totally off of my radar coming into the combine due to an uninspiring college career but his speed score will definitely pique the interest of some NFL teams making him a likely mid-round selection at worst.
The scores of Ingram and Williams are shockingly low due to their relatively slow 40 times for their sizes. While they have low speed scores both project to be successful on the NFL level as a tandem back at a minimum and more likely as lead backs. So it is important to remember that a low speed score or a high one is not a tell-all, but rather a indicator of potential success…just ask Jackie Battle.
Roy Helu and DeMarco Murray are two other names to keep an eye on. If they land in the right situation they could make quite an impact at the next level.
