The NFL combine is complete and this is the time we take a closer look at the top running backs and analyze their speed scores.
Lamar Miller was the top running back this year as predicted by the speed score metric, and is the only running back that received a first round grade by way of the speed score.
Miller’s speed score of 113 led all running backs, who at 5’11, 212 lbs and a 4.40 40-time is projected to have the best NFL career as a pure runner.
Trent Richardson did not run a 40-yard dash at the combine and will wait until his pro day though he is not expected to put up a high speed score.
LaMichael James put up a rather pedestrian speed score of 99 due to the fact he only ran a 4.45 at 194 lbs, however this metric does not take into account passing game ability so we still have James pegged to be a success in the NFL here at Win My Fantasy League.
What is a Speed Score?
“Speed Score: A method for projecting the NFL success of a rookie running back which combines a player’s weight with his 40-yard dash time from the NFL scouting combine, thus accounting for the fact that a larger back is more likely to be a good NFL player than a small back with the same speed. Speed Scores generally range from 80 to 120, with 100 as the average. Introduced on ESPN.com in the spring of 2008, with a more expanded introduction in Pro Football Prospectus 2008.”
Source: Football Outsiders
“Keeping this in mind, we’ve developed a metric called “Speed Score”, which takes into account both a player’s time in the 40-yard dash at the Combine as well as his weight. Speed Score bears a significant correlation to NFL carries (a correlation coefficient of .46 and a sign of a player’s durability), yards (.46), and DYAR (.37), all at a level superior to that of strictly using the 40-yard dash time alone.
The metric is calculated by multiplying the player’s weight by 200, and then dividing that figure by his 40 time, taken to the fourth power. Although it sounds like a bizarre calculation, the whole thing is pretty simple. 40 time is multiplied to the fourth power because of the huge difference there is in hundredths of a second for a player running the 40. The weight is multiplied by 200 to scale the metric so that an average Speed Score is just about 100. The average for first-round picks in the NFL Draft is 112.9.”
Source: Washington Post
For a full list of speed scores you can visit Bolts from the Blue, but here are some of the noteworthy scores and names.
LaMar Miller – 113
Chris Polk – 99
David Wilson – 101
LaMichael James – 99
Doug Martin – 104
Bernard Pierce – 107
Robert Turbin – 108
Cyrus Gray – 103
Chris Polk put up a horrible time of 4.57 and if not for his reliable hands and power at 215 lbs he would have taken a more serious tumble in our dynasty rankings.
Doug Martin is a little bowling ball at 5’9 and 223 lbs and seems poised for success at the next level, though he may enter a time-share in his first year.
David Wilson looks like he will have a solid NFL career ahead of him; he was already projected as one of the top running backs in this class and his speed score has proven it. His 103 is not an elite number but should be good enough to get him drafted on day two and quite possibly as the third or fourth running back off the board.
The Unknowns
Three running backs turned some heads at the NFL combine and made their presences known with speed scores over 103; small school prospect Robert Turbin, Cyrus Gray whom has reliable hands and early-down back Bernard Pierce.
All three of these names can have varying levels of success in their first season based on where they land, so add their names to your dynasty league cheat sheets and to your 2012 running back sleeper lists.
New Dynasty Rankings for incoming prospects
Trent Richardson
LaMar Miller
Doug Martin
David Wilson
LaMichael James
Chris Polk
Bernard Pierce
Cyrus Gray
Robert Turbin
