2012 Wide Receiver Busts
Rizzla
Wes Welker – Being drafted as the 8th receiver off the board in current Yahoo! drafts, Wes Welker has a good chance to disappoint those who select him in standard formats. His total yardage for the year should drop to about the 1,100 level (from 1,569) and his total TD’s should not exceed six. Good numbers, yes, but likely not WR1 numbers this season. Welker will see a few less targets this year but more importantly less yardage. Welker is still a top option in PPR formats but in standard leagues he will suffer quite a drop off as Brandon Lloyd steals over 1,000 combined yards from Welker, Gronkowski, Branch and others.
Miles Austin – Bum hamstrings and Dez Bryant. These are the two of the main reasons Miles Austin will not finish in the top-15 he is currently being drafted at in Yahoo! drafts. Austin seems to have developed chronic hamstring issues and is not a good bet to make it through 16 games healthy. Furthermore, Dez Bryant has reportedly ‘got it’ on-field leading most observers to conclude that Dez Bryant will become the new focal point of the Cowboys passing attack. Austin can still potentially finish the season as a WR2 in non-PPR leagues but has more of the look of a high upside WR3 this campaign. Draft accordingly.
Robert Meachem – Meachem definitely has WR2 potential this season with Philip Rivers at the helm and at his current ADP of 87th overall and the 29th receiver off the board he seems to be a good value, right? So far this preseason the buzz has been that Meachem and Rivers have been unable to get on the same page chemistry wise, Floyd may be the better bet to be the teams premier deep threat this season. Floyd is going off the board as the 41st receiver taken in Yahoo! drafts and is a good bet to finish with more fantasy points than Meachem this season. Furthermore names like Reggie Wayne, Torrey Smith, Denarius Moore, Justin Blackmon and Pierre Garcon are all better bets to finish with more fantasy points than Meachem and are all coming off the board later than him in current drafts.
Zach
Dez Bryant – Yes, he’s a very talented receiver, but he hasn’t grown up yet. It’s hard for a receiver, even as talented as Bryant, to be successful when he’s dealing with off-field issues, injuries (patella tendinitis), and a really shaky offensive line all at the same time. Don’t get me wrong; I think Bryant will have a decent fantasy season, I just don’t think it will be as glorious as a lot of people are saying it will be. I see more of a 900 yard, six or seven touchdown season for the third-year receiver, at the most. Bryant is a player that is being hyped up in fantasy leagues. I think it only leads to fantasy owners being let down. Jason Witten may end up being Tony Romo’s most reliable target in 2012.
Kenny Britt – He’s coming off knee surgery, may miss the season opener, will probably be suspended a couple games for DUI, and only played in three games last season. I like the potential he has. He was one of the top fantasy wide receivers in 2011 before tearing his ACL/MCL. There’s just too much risk involved for me. We don’t know what he’ll look like when he comes back and there are plenty of other options for the Titans at wide receiver, including Kendall Wright, Nate Washington, and Damian Williams.
Denarius Moore – I feel like I’ve said this before, but I’m not a big fan of anyone on Oakland’s offense except a healthy DMC. Moore showed in 2011 that he has NFL speed, but that’s about all he showed. I prefer Darrius Heyward-Bey among Raider wide receivers, although I’d probably stay away from all of them on Draft Day. It’ll take at least one more season for Moore to prove to me that I should draft him.
