2013-2014 Fantasy Basketball ADP Sleepers and Busts
ADP Sleepers
In order to analyze our top ADP sleepers and busts we took a look at ESPN’s average draft position/live draft results and compared it to our own rankings. Some of the players listed on our rankings with dual eligibility have changed potential rankings of others who do not have dual eligibility in the ESPN game so that should be taken into account when analyzing these two lists for potential busts and sleepers.
The top sleepers at the point guard position this year include Steve Nash who is set to have a solid bounce back season after a pedestrian 2012-2013 season; Trey Burke who looks capable of a top-15 performance at his position this year; Michael Carter-Williams who seems set to be thrust into a big role whether he is ready or not; Kyle Lowry who was a top-five fantasy point guard prior to his injury last year and Patrick Beverley who just might end up the Rockets starting point guard when all is said and done.
The top sleepers at the shooting guard position include: Kyle Korver who finished as a top-10 option last season and is being drafted 27th out of shooting guards this year and Eric Gordon whom, if he stays healthy looks like a sure fire top-10 off-guard.
At the small forward position Anthony Bennett is one my favorite ADP sleepers, the fact of the matter is with enough playing time at power forward as opposed to small forward Bennett can average 15 points, 10 rebounds, 1 three, 1 steal and 1 block per game on a field goal percentage over the .500 mark; all the ingredients for fantasy gold. Shawn Marion is also a solid sleeper who possess a very fantasy friendly game as he regularly fills up the stat sheet.
One of my top ADP sleepers at power forward is Derrick Favors who has all the necessary tools to post a top-12 finish at his position. Favors is oozing with upside and a 16-10-1.5-.500 season seems like a floor here. At an average ADP of 62nd overall Favors and his third round upside are an absolute steal.
At the center position our top ADP sleepers are our two top rated centers in DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis both of whom should be at least second round, if not first round picks. Davis has an ADP of 25.3 while DeMarcus has an ADP of 34.7 and are absolute value steals. Count yourself lucky if you somehow manage to land both of them.
ADP Busts
These are players we do not expect to live up to their draft day ADP.
Ty Lawson is a good point guard in both real life and fantasy but he is not a top-10 option in either. He is currently going off the board as the 10th overall point guard and seems destined to disappoint owners by at least a couple of slots.
Wesley Matthews looks like the top bust from the shooting guard position who despite a strong overall fantasy game will see his minutes limited by the additions of C.J McCollum, Mo Williams and Allan Crabbe making it next to impossible for him to finish this high despite a strong 2012-2013 season. Klay Thompson also gets an honorable mention as it will be hard for him to match last years numbers with another mouth to feed in Golden State this year with Andre Iguodala now in town.
Try as I might I could not single out a small forward ADP bust as most of the players seem to be going off the board at around the right order.
At the power forward position Kevin Love stands out as a potential ADP bust. Love has shown that he does indeed have the upside to be the first four off the board and to be a 1st round value but on the other hand he has shown that he has a significantly low floor that is tied to his field goal percentage which since he takes a lot of threes is no guarantee to improve this year. We currently have Love as our fifth ranked eligible power forward behind LBJ, Melo, DeMarcus and Anthony Davis.
Our top ADP bust at the center position is Omer Asik who will see a stark reduction in usage if not playing time with Dwight Howard now in town. Asik is going before higher floor options such as DeAndre Jordan, Spencer Hawes and Enes Kanter while also going ahead of higher upside undrafted options such as Greg Oden, Andrew Bynum, Kelly Olynyk, Glen Davis and Steven Adams.
