2014 Fantasy Football QB ADP Busts and Sleepers
Sleepers/Undervalued
Jay Cutler – The Bears Jay Cutler has the opportunity to make good on the elite fantasy potential he flashed in Denver. The Bears quarterbacks combined fantasy output in 20133 would have placed them fifth among fantasy QB’s and Cutler if he stays healthy seem like a near lock for top-10 numbers this season. Interceptions are always a risk with a gunslinger like Cutler but he has elite TD upside with all the weapons at his disposal in Chicago. Cutler is currently being drafted as the 14th QB and is ranked 13th overall based on ECR. Don’t sleep.
Johnny Manziel – Manziel is in the perfect system with the perfect offensive coordinator to maximize his talents. Kyle Shanahan showed in 2012 with RGIII what he could do with an elite mobile QB with downfield touch and the sky’s the limit for Manziel once he gets named the starter, with or without Josh Gordon. With Gordon we would be talking about Manziel as potential top ten option when starting without him we are looking at a solid top-15 quarterback. It is true that we project a lion share of Manziel’s fantasy value to come from his scrambling ability as he will likely be a flex running back and QB2 rolled into one. Manziel will do enough in his starts to outperform his current ADP as the 18th QB off the board as well as his ECR of 20.
Busts/Overvalued
Nick Foles – Nick Foles is currently being drafted ninth among fantasy quarterbacks despite not having played a full season and throwing for only 203.1 yards per game and seven total touchdowns in six home starts. Nick Foles has a chance to be a solid low-end QB1 in 2014 but profiles more as a high end QB2 who will sprinkle in some QB1 weeks. Foles’ insane touchdown to interception ratio is destined to fall as the instead of getting the Raiders this season the Eagles have to deal with the Cardinals, Seahawks and 49ers instead. Foles will be worthy of matchup based starts this season and should push to finish as a top-15 QB but he will likely fail to meet his draft day ADP value this season, especially with a rookie as his most talented wide receiver after losing number one and field-stretcher DeSean Jackson and the second most talented wideout coming off of ACL surgery. Foles looks destined to disappoint owners who select him as the ninth overall QB off the board ahead of the likes of Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan.
