2014 Fantasy Football WR Sleepers and Busts
We will tackle wide receivers first this year in discussing players we view as overvalued and undervalued based on rankings and ADP.
ADP Sleepers
These receivers are currently being drafted much too low based on our projections and will outperform their current ADP and ECR ranking.
Hakeem Nicks – We expect Hakeem Nicks to have a solid bounce back season now that he has got the money he coveted the last two seasons. Though he is only on a short-term deal Nicks will be motivated to earn his next pay day and will not be ‘screwing the pooch’ like he did while sleepwalking through his last two seasons in New York while embroiled in a contract dispute only to see Victor Cruz get paid. Nicks landed with an elite quarterback in Andrew Luck and should surpass 1,000 yards receiving this season with more than 75 receptions numbers that would have made him a top-25 receiver in 2013. Nicks is also expected to lead the Colts talented receiving corps in touchdowns. His current ADP is as the 43rd receiver off the board and his ECR is 45th, which is probably where he is currently going in drafts and is one of the main reasons I like to draft early…to take advantage of other owners who are behind the times and have not yet been alerted by our friends at Rotoworld.
Aaron Dobson – 6’3, 4.38 wheels, Tom Brady’s vertical receiver. Yes, Dobson is all of these three things but make no mistake he is no Randy Moss but he has the highest upside of any receiver on the Patriots roster. Dobson has the opportunity to be a top-25 receiver this year but we have him ranked just outside that as our 28th overall receiver. Dobson has 1,200 yard plus, 8 plus touchdown upside in 2014. Dobson is currently ranked as the 48th overall receiver based on ECR and is the 53rd receiver off the board in fantasy drafts.
Kenny Britt – We all know that Britt possesses WR1 talent but has not been able to harness it due to off-field issues and injuries. Signing with the Rams and former Titans coach Jeff Fischer was an ideal move for the 25 year old Britt who should be able to resuscitate his career on a team without an established number one or number two receiver. We all know that Sam Bradford loves to target tall wideouts and that once he hones in on his top receiver that he will pepper him with enough targets for him to compete for the weekly leaders. These factors when combined with glowing off-season reports from teammates who have dubbed him the Hulk indicate that Britt will propel himself back into the WR2 conversation with legit WR1 upside if he can avoid injury. Britt is currently the 77th receiver off the board and the 68th ranked receiver based on ECR. Britt will be one of the steals of your draft.
James Jones – Someone has to catch passes in Oakland and James Jones has proven that he can be a plus red-zone weapon. Jones may be second on the team in targets behind Rod Streater who will act as the possession receiver but he should push to lead the team in touchdowns this season. Jones should be a WR3 at worst but is currently being drafted as a WR5 as he is going off the board as the 49th receiver which is where he also happens to be ranked based on ECR.
Kelvin Benjamin – Benjamin should easily see 100+ targets this season as the Panthers number one receiver and should be able to top Riley Cooper’s 47 reception, 835 yard, 8 touchdown fantasy output, numbers which made him the WR22 last season. Benjamin is a solid redraft WR3 despite being a rookie and he should push for WR2 numbers this season. Benjamin is currently coming off the board as the 50th receiver and is ranked as the 54th receiver based on ECR.
Odell Beckham – Beckham steps right in as the most talented receiver on the Giants roster and should post solid fantasy numbers in year one. Beckham is a good bet for at least 70 receptions, 950 yards and five touchdowns this season, numbers that would have made him a WR2 in 2013. Beckham is capable of highlight reel catches and should post a few 100 yard receiving games this season for the New York Football Giants. Beckham is currently going off the board as the 56th receiver and is ranked even lowed based on expert consensus way down at 62 overall.
Jordan Matthews – Matthews much like the aforementioned Beckham will step right in as his team’s most talented receiver and top big play threat. Matthews should see plenty of snaps even if he does not open the season as a ‘starter’. We expect the Eagles to run plenty of three-wide sets this season which will help Matthews post at least 65 receptions, 900 yards and five touchdowns, numbers that would have made him the WR33 in 2013. Matthews is currently being taken after 63 other receivers and is ranked 60th based on ECR.
Marqise Lee – Lee is a very talented wide receiver who has the talent to be this years Keenan Allen. Allen should flirt with 70 receptions, 1,000 yards and at least five touchdowns this season, numbers that would have made him a top-25 receiver in 2013. I have him ranked conservatively but the numbers I projected seem like his floor which make him an ADP steal. Lee is currently the 71st receiver off the board and is ranked as the 69th overall receiver based on ECR.
Overvalued
These receivers while talented (with the exception of Cooper) are currently being drafted about ten spots too high based on our current projections.
Victor Cruz – I am going to stop short of calling Cruz a potential bust because he will not be one. He is being drafted as a WR2 and he will push for WR2 numbers though his numbers will be more valuable to PPR owners. Cruz is currently ranked 33rd on our rankings due to the talent at the wide receiver position and not based on his lack thereof. Cruz is currently the 17th receiver off of the board and the 16th ranked receiver based on ECR.
T.Y Hilton – Hilton is a very talented receiver who is being overdrafted this year based on last years solid numbers. With Hakeem Nicks in the fold and Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen healthy there is little chance Hilton approaches 138 targets again this year. Hilton is expected to be the number three receiver behind Wayne and Nicks this season and will even lose some vertical threat snaps to rookie Donte Moncrief whose size adds another advantageous element downfield. Hilton is a solid flex option this year but is not someone you want as your WR2. Hilton should have some big games this season and others where he is a fantasy non-factor. Hilton is being drafted too high as he is currently the 23rd receiver off the board and is ranked as the 25th overall receiver based on ECR.
Julian Edelman – Edelman rode a decimated tight end corps and inexperienced or hurt receiver corps to rock solid fantasy numbers in 2013 but he will have a hard time repeating that feat with a healthy Dobson, Gronkowski and Amendola competing for targets. Amendola could quite possibly see less targets this year than he had total receptions last season seriously jeopardizing his fantasy value. Edelman is still a strong flex play this year but is not worth his current ADP as the 26th receiver off the board and should finish well below his ranking as the 29th overall receiver based on ECR.
Cecil Shorts – All you have to know about why Shorts is overvalued is that Jacksonville drafted two receivers with more talent that Shorts who will be quickly relegated to a slot role. Shorts is currently going off the board as the 41st receiver and is ranked as the 37th receiver based on ECR. Now while getting his as a WR4/flex option is fine value he will likely finish much lower that, we currently have him ranked 66th overall in a loaded wide receiver crop.
Riley Cooper – This is not a Mr. Cooper you want to hang with. Cooper was thrust into a major role last season due to a severe lack of depth behind the Eagles top two receivers and their number two going down with a season ending injury. Cooper managed only 43 receptions last season and he should see that number fall this season with the more talented Jordan Matthews and Josh Huff in town to steal both targets and snaps. Cooper is being severely overdrafted based on last years numbers and will be hard pressed to live up to his ADP of the 37th receiver off of the board or even his ECR of 41st overall.
