Rizzla presents his updated dynasty league rookie rankings at the NBA seasons quarter pole.
With a month of NBA season now in the books and 20 games played for many teams, this seems like a great time to revisit our dynasty league rookie rankings. Some players roles have been solidified while other highly touted players have struggled to find minutes. A few, like Aaron Holiday and Allonzo Trier have surpassed expectations and have increased their fantasy values despite playing in muddied depth chart situations.
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jaren Jackson Jr. remains our top dynasty league rookie as he simply possesses a ceiling that no other player in this draft class can match. Averaging 13.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.1 steals, 2.2 blocks and 0.8 threes on .519 shooting in 25 minutes per game on the season JJJ has came to life as of late amassing a 14.5 point, 4.3 rebound, 2.3 assist, 0.5 steal, 3.5 block and 1.8 threes line in 28 mpg over last seven days. JJJ has seen a few monster fantasy lines, putting up five blocks twice and most recently a monster seven block outing vs the New York Knicks. However arguably his best game of the season came against the Atlanta Hawks in his second game of the season where he put 24 points, 7 rebounds, two threes, two blocks and two steals on .667 shooting. To truly glimpse JJJ’s current fantasy upside a look at his 18.6 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.6 blocks per 36 minute splits (with 1.5 steals and 1.1 threes) helps to accentuate the upside of the youngest player in the NBA who is only going to improve over the next seven years, at which point he still will have not hit his prime.
Deciding who to rank after JJJ is where subjectiveness comes into play. There is an argument to have either rookie second so I will instead denote them 2a and 2b for the purposes of this column.
Deandre Ayton
DeAndre Ayton has been rock solid for the Phoenix Suns this season putting up 16.9 points, 10.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.6 steals and 0.7 blocks on .624 shooting percentage as one of only two rookies currently averaging over 30 minutes per game. Ayton has put his foot on the pedal lately averaging 19.3 points, 10.3 rebounds and a block per game over the past seven days inching closer to his true upside. Ayton’s best game of the season came Sunday vs the Pistons where he put up 25 points, 13 rebounds and three blocks on an outstanding .846 shooting. Ayton attempting only two threes and making none on the season has been an unwelcomed development that has kept him from pulling apart from Luka Doncic in our rankings. Ayton still profiles as someone who will add range to his fantasy game and will be one of the most sought after bigs in both redraft and dynasty as soon as 2019.
Luka Doncic
Arguably the number one rookie as far as redraft is concerned Luka Doncic has put up 19.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 2.4 threes, 1.0 steals and 0.3 blocks on .453 shooting in over thirty minutes per game so far on the season. Doncic has stepped it up as of late averaging a robust 17 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.7 blocks and 2.7 threes in a rookie high 34 mpg over the last seven days. Luka’s best fantasy outing came on October 29th vs the Spurs where he put up 31 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, four three pointers with a steal and a block on .611 shooting. Doncic has been a revelation this season and has produced at a level higher than even the most lofty of expectations. Hitting more threes per game than much ballyhooed long distance maven Trae Young, the only holes to speak of in Doncic’s fantasy game relate to his turnover numbers and field goal percentage, especially now that he has picked it up in the blocks department. Doncic is someone you want to acquire in dynasty leagues even if you lose the trade in the short term.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
While SGA’s current numbers won’t wow anyone, he is something special on film and possesses the upside to be one of the top point guards in both real life and fantasy, roster permitting. SGA is averaging 10.5 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.7 blocks and 0.4 threes in just under 28 per game and is staying consistent averaging 13.3 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.8 blocks and 0.3 thress on shooting in 29 mpg over the last seven days. SGA’s best fantasy day thus far was a 10 point, 8 rebound, 7 assist and 2 steals outing vs the Washington Wizards which highlighted his exceptional versatility and fantasy game at the point guard position. Gilgeous-Alexander has flashed his upside as a scorer by averaging 17.6 points per game between November 8-12 and could quickly become one of the most deadly two way players the point guard position has seen in a long time.
Collin Sexton
Collin Sexton is averaging a yawn inducing 14.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.2 blocks and 0.7 threes in 27 mpg on the season but has been on fire over last seven averaging 20.5 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 0.8 threes per game in 31 mpg. Sexton leaves one wanting in steals department but is looking like the second best point guard in this draft class. Averaging an eye opening 19.6 points per game as a starter Collin Sexton could quickly become the best scoring point guard in the entire NBA. Sexton’s best game as a starter came in the form of a .667 shooting, 29 point eruption against the Houston Rockets and could find his way to 20 points per game over the second half of the season. Sexton has yet to truly impress as a passer with five assists being his current career high but should ramp it up in this department once the Cavs add some more legitimate talent to their roster in the future.
Wendell Carter Jr.
Wendell Carter has been a solid fantasy force in his rookie season highlighted by a career high 25 points vs the Nuggets but his best game this season came against the Pelicans where he put up 17 points, 11 rebounds, 2 blocks, 2 threes and 1 steal on .636 shooting. Carter Jr. is averaging 11.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.7 blocks and 0.3 threes on .472 shooting in a confusingly low 25 mpg. Carter much like JJJ just needs more minutes and the green light from deep to join the elusive 1/1/1 club as his per 36 numbers have him at 15.7 points, 10.1 rebounds, 2.4 blocks, 0.9 steals and 0.3 threes. Over past seven days Carter is averaging 10.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.7 blocks, zero threes in 22 mpg suggesting that Carter is mired in a slump of sorts but the talented big man may just need more minutes to work his way out of it. Carter Jr.’s dynasty stock has taken a slight dip from the preseason when it was assumed he would be taking and making more three point shots and also due to the peculiar lack of minutes with Lauri Markkanen sidelined. Carter is a solid buy low target if you have the assets to pry him away from his current owner.
Michael Porter Jr.
Michael Porter Jr. remains sidelined for the Denver Nuggets but projects as one of the NBA’s premier scorers, and this is before he has ever played an NBA game. Porter Jr. would be higher on this list if not for his back and hip injuries, the former of which has been well known to cut short the careers of the NBA’s brightest talents such as Tracy McGrady. Porter is a smooth shooting 6’11 small forward who checks all the boxes of an offensive powerhouse. Porter remains a strong buy and hold in all dynasty or deep keeper formats.
Marvin Bagley
Marvin Bagley has been a relative disappointment this season averaging an uninspiring 12.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.3 blocks and 0.3 threes in 23 mpg. Thankfully Bagley has started heating up as of late and is averaging 16 points, 10.5 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in 29 mpg over the past seven days. The lack of threes a concern for Bagley’s long term dynasty outlook as hitting at least one per game is necessary for him to reach his projected fantasy ceiling. Bagley has had two blow up games over that span with a eye opening 20 point, 17 rebound outing versus the Warriors coming only two games after his exciting 15 point, 13 rebound and 3 block showing against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Bagley does indeed have mammoth upside but the Kings are going to have to commit to him as a 30 minute per game player for him to start to truly scratch the surface of his potential on a consistent, long term basis. His per 36 minute stats support this notion as he is currently pegged at 19.1 ponts, 10.0 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, 0.7 steals and 0.5 threes per game on .508 shooting.
Trae Young
Trae Young has already flashed his immense upside this season with blow up games including a 35 point, 11 assist, 6 three and 1 steal outing in his third career NBA game. Also very notably Young currently holds the high water mark in assists on the season with the 17 he put up in a 25-17 performance against the Los Angeles Clippers. Young is averaging 15.7 points, 2.9 rebounds, 7.7 assists, 1.4 threes, 0.7 steals and 0.3 blocks in 29 mpg but is doing so at a putrid .383 shooting clip. The field goal percentage numbers belie a G-Leaguer but he has shown why he was considered a lottery talent on the strength of six double doubles and the aforementioned monster lines. Young has actually seen his minutes decrease over the past week and is averaging 13.5 points, 1.5 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.5 blocks and 1.3 threes in 27 mpg on .333 shooting and while he is an obvious dynasty hold, Young has displayed a lower floor than we thought possible coming into the season. Young has done his dynasty stock little favors over the first quarter of the season and has actually slipped in our rankings both due to poor play and the inevitable infusion of talent in the future that will undoubtedly decrease his usage.
Mo Bamba
Mo Bamba is the player who has been the most concerning dynasty stock wise. Bamba’s upside is undeniable but he is still very raw and is currently more akin to an early career Bismack Biyombo with range than the potential fantasy superstar we thought we would be. It is much too early to press the panic button but Bamba may have a lower fantasy ceiling than originally anticipated. Bamba maintains his 13 point, 10 rebound, 3 blocks and 1.5 threes fantasy upside but is currently averaging just 6.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.3 blocks and 0.5 threes on .505 shooting in 17 mpg on season. His numbers have been ever worse over the past seven days as he has seen only thirteen minutes per contest. On the bright side Bamba has hit a three in each of his last three contests helping solidify his dynasty value. Bamba has been spotty production wise but boasts a double double on the season coming from a 12 point, 11 rebound, one block game against the San Antonio Spurs. Like many of the others featured on this list Bamba could explode when he’s ready to handle starters minutes as his per 36 numbers peg him at 14.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.7 blocks, 1.2 threes and 0.7 steals on .513 shooting.
Miles Bridges
Miles Bridges is one of the more talented rookies in this draft class but at only 21 minutes per game is averaging 7.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.7 blocks and 0.8 threes. However Miles Bridges per 36 numbers show the fantasy promise we all expected of Bridges as he is currently pegged at 12.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.4 threes, 1.1 blocks and 1.0 steals on .505 shooting, numbers that would make him a top-50 fantasy asset. Bridges remains a strong buy in dynasty formats due to his fantasy gold level of versatility. Bridges was able to flash his upside against the Chicago Bulls where he put up 15 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals and one three pointer on .700 shooting providing more evidence that Bridges just needs the minutes to get the hype train started.
Aaron Holiday
Jrue and Justin’s little brother Aaron Holiday is averaging a mere 6.4 points, 2.3 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.2 blocks and 0.8 threes but that is in only 10 mpg. Given extended minutes in the wake of Victor Oladipo missing some action Holiday exploded for a breakout 19 point, 7 rebound, two three pointer game on .700 shooting against the Utah Jazz on November 19th. As is the case with many rookies, finding consistent minutes has been the bane to Holiday’s fantasy existence but with his upside now etched in stone we can safely call Holiday a high upside stash. Averaging 21.2 points, 7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.6 blocks and 2.1 threes on .491 shooting per 36 minutes we could be looking at one of the more talented offensive combo guards in the NBA, making Holiday a solid buy in all dynasty formats.
Mikal Bridges
Mikal Bridges has been a disappointment this season but still has a solid NBA career ahead of him. Mired in a crowded depth chart situation Mikal is averaging just 7.3 points, 2.1 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.1 threes in 21 minutes per game but teased some of his fantasy upside against Oklahoma City Thunder the where he put up 14 points, 4 steals, 2 blocks and 3 three pointers on .571 shooting. Not to be confused with his more talented rookie counterpart with the same last name Mikal’s per 36 numbers read as follows: 12.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.2 steals, 0.5 blocks and 1.9 threes on .450 shooting. Mikal profiles as a long term NBA starter so the minutes should be there for him once the logjam on the wing is cleared up in Phoenix. Mikal is a tougher player to roster due to his lack of a role but if you can afford to punt a roster spot Bridges is a high upside stash that could pay serious dividends in the future.
Landry Shamet
Who is Landry Shamet? That is the question many fantasy owners who don’t watch the entire first round of the NBA draft have been asking themselves this season. Shamet is a smooth shooting long distance bomber who seems like a perfect fit for the Philadelphia 76ers. Shamet is averaging a meager 8.2 points, 1.2 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.5 blocks and 1.9 threes in 21 mpg on the season but over the past seven days Shamet is averaging a cool 12.5 points and three 3 pointers per game in 22 mpg. Shamet could provide deep league value as a three point specialist but could really take over if his role is ever solidified due to a Markelle Fultz trade (badly needed divorce for both sides). Shamet flashed his upside this season by putting up 15 points with four three pointers on .667 shooting vs the New Orleans Pelicans in just 20 minutes of action. Shamet who is averaging a robust 13.9 points and 3.2 threes made per 36 minutes should maintain a role on Sixers dynasty wise as a shooting complement to the rosters core players.
Allonzo Trier
New York Knicks undrafted free agent Allonzo Trier has burst onto the scene averaging 13 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2 assists and 1.3 threes in 21 mpg over his past seven and 11.4 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.5 blocks and 0.8 threes in 23 mpg on the season. Trier finally made the most of his extended minutes against the New Orleans Pelicans where he put up 25 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 three pointers on .750 shooting. Trier also managed a three block outing which he followed up with a three steal game highlighting his potential fantasy versatility. As evidenced by his per 36 minute splits Trier could become a fantasy force if he can find his way to consistent playing time; Trier’s per 36 line has him at 17.4 points, 0.7 blocks, 0.8 steals and 1.2 threes suggesting that top-100 status would be a certainty if given the extra burn. Trier output is partially personnel and usage related but he has provided ample evidence that he can remain an effective deep league source of points and threes even when the Knicks have more talent on the floor.
Honorable mentions: Mitch Robinson, Kevin Knox
