2018 Fantasy Football Running Back Sleepers and Busts
With preseason starting tonight and draft season officially underway we are excited to bring you our first installment of our picks for ADP and/or Expert Consensus Ranking running back sleepers and busts.
LeSean McCoy – McCoy currently has an ECR of 18 which seems like a bit of an overreaction to the disturbing domestic violence allegations that surfaced involving his ex-girlfriend. As of now it is known that he was not physically involved but is being blamed for putting said violence in motion. This reeks of a lengthy investigation and is not something that should affect McCoy’s 2018 workload or fantasy stock. McCoy’s yahoo ADP is currently in line with where we have him ranked as we have him 12th as of this writing and he is the 12th back off the board in Yahoo! Drafts. With that said we do indeed have him too low and he is sure to rise back up to where his skill set and usage dictate within the next few weeks. Add McCoy as your second RB1 whenever and wherever possible.
Sony Michel – Sony Michel has scary upside in the Patriots offense leaving the only true question to discern being how much can he handle week to week. While the Patriots are destined to employ a committee with Rex Burkhead and James White, Michel should be the clear lead back and should generate 15-20 touches per week. We currently have him ranked as our 16th overall runner while he is ranked by my peers at an ECR of 30 and currently boasts a 27th overall running back ADP. Now while I am not necessarily telling you to draft Michel 16th you should be cognizant of his potential role and upside when in the draft room and in preparing your cheat sheets.
Aaron Jones – It seems that no one really believes in Aaron Jones or they think the Packers will employ a true RBBC. Currently the 33rd running back off the board in yahoo drafts and ranked by my peers with an ECR of 42 there is plenty of value to be had here. Only suspended for two games Jones’ talent superiority vs Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams is so vast that we are not even worried about one of the two latter running with the job. Aaron Rodgers has stated he has full confidence in Jones in the backfield and if that statement of praise is not enough to get your fantasy juices flowing you are a zombie. Williams is going off the board 11 picks after Jones but Jones is the back to own here. Draft and stash our 17th ranked runner with confidence.
Busts
Jay Ayaji – I love Ayaji’s upside this year unfortunately I only rank rookies based on upside while vets get the realistic projections based on role and past NFL performance. Now while Ayaji definitely has the upside for 1,000 plus rushing yards and ten plus touchdowns he has limited reception upside and will cede snaps to Corey Clement, Darren Sproles and Wendell Smallwood at a minimum. Ayaji should remain a force behind the Eagles offensive line but is ranked due to his potential floor at 29th overall at the running back position while he is coming off the board as the 19th overall back which in fact matches his current ECR.
Lamar Miller – Lamar Miller remains one of the more explosive backs in the league but what has been evident since his time in Miami is that he excels as a change of pace option and when he is completely fresh for his carries. With that said we do expect Foreman’s role to grow both in overall touches and especially in the red zone. Currently going off boards as the 26th overall running back and with an ECR of 22 Miller has a high chance to disappoint owners banking on Foreman missing a significant portion of the season as he is reportedly trending in the right direction despite currently being on the PUP list. We have Miller ranked as an RB3 (37th overall) who will only crack the top-30 in our rankings if Foreman remains on the list to start the season.
Jamaal Williams – Of course we had to hit Jamaal Williams as an ECR bust where he is currently ranked as the 35th overall running back. His current Yahoo ADP of 44 is more in line with our rank of him of 45. The simple fact of the matter is that the Packers will not have two backs rank as RB3’s or higher to end the season so if you are betting on Jones like we are than Williams is the one who takes the hit. While Williams may possess superior short yardage and goal line chops he has proven to be nothing more than a plodder and he is not as talented as Aaron Jones despite being drafted one round earlier in the 2017 draft. Williams seems like more of a best ball or bye week filler option than the RB3 some appear to be touting him as. Draft accordingly.
