Rizzla discusses the Oakland Raiders theft of Antonio Brown from the Pittsburgh Steelers, and takes a look at the fantasy context.
After three days full of drama and intrigue, new Raiders G.M. Mike Mayock pulled of a coup by landing superstar wide receiver Antonio Brown for a 3rd and 5th round pick.
Antonio Brown is indeed bound for the Raiders.
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) March 10, 2019
This is an electric first move for the new Raiders general manager who understood that Brown’s trade price tag was directly tied to his new contract demands. The Raiders landed arguably the best receiver in the league at a heavy discount, because they were willing to acquiesce to his salary expectations. This is a great move for a team that netted a first round pick for Amari Cooper. If you take a look at their two trades as a whole, they essentially landed Antonio Brown and a first round pick for Amari Cooper, a 3rd, and a 5th. Mayock may have just saved Jon Gruden’s legacy.
The Steelers also did well to indeed get the third round pick most viewed as their ceiling for this deal. Especially after the drama of the past couple of days with the failed deal to Buffalo. The fact that they managed to squeeze a fifth round pick out of the Raiders has to be viewed as a win. The Steelers can look to the draft to shore up their receiving corps, and move ahead with James Washington, and JuJu Smith-Schuster to round out their top three. This was an ugly divorce for Brown and the Steelers and while they will not be able to replace Brown, they are lucky to have a talented receiver in his own right in James Washington already waiting in the wings.
Fantasy Context:
Losing Brown downgrades the fantasy value of all of the Pittsburgh Steelers wide receivers except for James Washington. Adding Brown is a major boost to the fantasy upside of Derek Carr, or whoever is under center for the Raiders come week one.
Antonio Brown loses some value with this move. The downgrade from Ben Roethlisberger to Derek Carr is a significant one. As alluded to above the Raiders may make a play for a quarterback, but as of now we will analyze this trade based on the current roster. Brown is still a borderline WR1 due to his immense talent, and elite route running skills. He may not see the same amount of targets in Oakland, but should still sport a similar target share.
Derek Carr remains a QB2 but now boasts significantly more upside. He should not be a starting option in single QB leagues, but is an interesting name in superflex formats. Brown should stabilize the Raiders passing attack, and provide the offense with a reliable chain mover. All it will take is a key free agent or draft addition or two at tight end or receiver, and the Raiders can become a formidable passing attack.
JuJu Smith-Schuster actually loses some of his value with this news. He will be forced to play outside more often, and will also occasionally find himself shadowed by the opposing team’s top corner. JuJu will now have to contend with double teams, while James Washington benefits in single coverage. JuJu still has WR1 upside but is now more of the WR10-WR14 in redraft leagues.
James Washington gets a major boost with this news. While fantasy owners will want to exercise patience before trading for Washington during his sell high window, he now has WR2 upside. Washington is a talented receiver who rather ‘expectedly’ was not featured as a rookie in the Steelers offense. He will not replace the production lost with Antonio Brown by himself, but will provide them with a strong downfield receiver, and big play threat.
Ben Roethlisberger remains in the QB1 mix. He loses a significant portion of his upside after finishing as the number two overall fantasy QB in 2018.
Big Ben had three finishes as the QB5 or above and half of his starts resulted in a fantasy QB1 finish. He may however lose some of his consistency if the Steelers fail to make any additions in free agency or the draft. A wait and see approach is recommended here as Ben could reclaim quite a bit of his value with a shrewd move or two from the Steelers front office.
James Conner, and Jaylen Samuels both lose major value with this news. With opposing teams no longer forced to double Antonio Brown the light fronts Conner to advantage of to the tune of 5.1 yards per carry should quickly evaporate. Conner saw more light boxes than anything else in 2018, checking in a 34.4 percent. Conner should now be viewed as more of an RB2, especially with the looming threat of a draft or veteran addition to the running back room in the coming weeks.
