In a surprise move the Jacksonville Jaguars have traded a fifth round pick for Cleveland Browns workhorse running back Carlos Hyde according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
Browns are trading RB Carlos Hyde to Jacksonville, source tells ESPN.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 19, 2018
This move has major ramifications for the backfields of both teams as TJ Yeldon will likely be pushed back to a reserve role while Leonard Fournette, if he manages to get healthy, will likely find himself in a true timeshare with a legitimate upper echelon NFL starter with an every down skill set.
In Cleveland Nick Chubb takes over as the Browns starting running back with Duke Johnson all but assured to see a larger role going forward.
This is a great move for the Cleveland Browns who won’t be competing for a playoff spot this season and lucked into prized rookie runner Nick Chubb a month after signing then free agent Carlos Hyde to a three year, $15.25 million dollar contract. The Chubb-Duke combo always looked like the backfield of the future here, and with this move that future is now.
For the Jacksonville Jaguars this is an important move as Leonard Fournette just can’t seem to stay healthy and TJ Yeldon, while expected to be active this weekend, is dealing with nagging injuries of his own. The Jags also placed third string running back Corey Grant on IR and signed street agent Jamaal Charles just over 10 days ago.
This move should help a Jaguars offense that strongly leans pass with Fournette on the shelf, become less predictable and as a byproduct have more success on their drives.
Fantasy Context:
Carlos Hyde sees a value jump with this move as he was trending in the wrong direction in Cleveland and could have been thrust into a dreaded RBBC with Nick Chubb deserving more carries and Duke Johnson needing more touches. At first glance it may appear Hyde actually loses fantasy value with this move but he should be the starter until Fournette is back and fully healthy and may keep the starting gig depending on how well he plays. The Jags would prefer to have a healthy Fournette for their hopeful playoff run and now do not have to rush their bruising runner back to the field. Tenth in the NFL in rushing yards and third with 34 evaded tackles Hyde brings a dynamic element to the Jaguars backfield. I am a bit surprised Tom Coughlin did not sign Orleans Darkwa but at similar money, with an out after this year Hyde was a low risk, high reward addition. Hyde is more of a RB2 going forward as opposed to an RB1 but he was trending in that direction anyways as mentioned above. Hyde will retain possible RB3 value even if Fournette returns during the regular season and reclaims the starting job immediately.
Nick Chubb finally sees the depth chart in front of him free up and becomes an immediate RB2 for the Browns. While Chubb’s dynasty value and ADP will certainly soar it’s his game changing, balance shifting redraft value increase that has fantasy owners buzzing. Arguably the second most talented runner in this class Chubb should be an improvement on Hyde on the ground. While Hyde, as mentioned above is tenth in the NFL in rushing yards he is third in carries sporting a replacement level 3.4 yards per carry, including only 2.9 yards per carry against the stacked fronts he saw 43.9 percent of the time (fourth in NFL). Chubb has flashed his brilliance already this season and fantasy owners should be excited about the rookie runner. Already owned in all competitive leagues Chubb’s ownership has skyrocketed 24 percent in the last few hours. Still however available in some 10 team and less leagues (46 percent availability) Chubb needs to be added now.
Leonard Fournette’s redraft fantasy value takes a major hit with this news as the Jaguars can now take their time activating their oft injured running back. With the Jaguars seemingly looking ahead to a possible playoff berth Fournette could plausibly be activated in week 16 or 17 in an effort to get him ready for the postseason. If Fournette returns after the Jaguars bye week as many have suggested he will return to a borderline RB2 role, especially if Carlos Hyde has learned the playbook and is playing well again. This is a potential death blow to fantasy owners who drafted Leonard Fournette.
Duke Johnson looks to be set for an increased workload for the Cleveland Browns. It is possible that the Browns give Chubb the same workload split that Hyde had but the more likely scenario is that we see more of a 70/30 or even 60/40 split going forward. With that said Duke Johnson owners should be made aware that Chubb has much better hands than Isaiah Crowell did so expecting an immediate return to Duke’s RB2 value of last year is still more of a hope than an inevitable fact. Duke does however maintain that theoretical RB2 PPR upside depending on how the touches and not snaps, are split over the next couple of weeks. While the Browns are a more competitive team this year they will still be trailing in most games and if the coaching staff does not yet trust their rookie in passing down and hurry up mode scenarios, Johnson could see a tremendous value spike. Add Duke in the leagues he may have been dropped in.
TJ Yeldon loses a significant portion of his fantasy upside with this news. Yeldon has been rock solid for the Jaguars while Fournette has been on the shelf and will remain the starter at least until week eight. With the Jaguars having a bye in week nine Hyde could emerge in week ten as the new starting running back if Fournette is still not ready to go. With that said this has the chance to be a really messy backfield, especially when Fournette returns. Yeldon remains the teams top receiving back while Fournette remains their best runner but with Hyde in the mix this could for all intents and purposes become yet another RBBC. Yeldon will be a borderline RB2 this week and should be a strong RB3 next week but after that the only promise here is uncertainty.
Jamaal Charles can be safely dropped in all but 20 team leagues.
Update: Jags reporter Hays Carylon speculates that Fournette may indeed be back after the Jags week nine bye and that Hyde may not play this week.
No, I don't think this means he's had a setback. I think he'll play at Indianapolis after the bye. This trade is the #Jaguars saying, "We will not be burned by a Fournette injury again." https://t.co/tOdY6rq6fn
— Hays Carlyon (@HaysCarlyon) October 19, 2018
Yes, we are. No, he won't play. https://t.co/0AcxlGFEA3
— Hays Carlyon (@HaysCarlyon) October 19, 2018
