Rizzla discusses the top cost per projected point (CPP) plays for this weeks GPP contests at DraftKings.
Unfortunately for daily fantasy players there are six teams on bye in a week where both Todd Gurley and the Los Angeles Rams and Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are excluded from contests due to playing on Monday Night Football. To make matters worse the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears are in the night game on Sunday which also eliminates them from this weeks GPP. With that said there are several weaker teams on bye in terms of fantasy relevant players so this week’s player pool is not diluted as it would otherwise normally be. We will touch on the top cost per projected point plays for each position.
Cam Newton ($227 CPP; $6,200)
Our top CPP play of the week at $227 per projected point, Cam Newton is our first overall QB for week eleven and looks like a solid value with a $6,200 price tag that ranks him fifth among quarterbacks in terms of salary. The Lions have been gashed both on the ground and through the air this season giving up the second most yards per attempt at 8.9 and surrendering the sixth highest yards per carry mark to their opponents. As evidenced by our ranking of Netwon we expect him to run roughshod over a struggling Lions defense that may be put in precarious positions by an offense down Marvin Jones and who traded away top playmaker Golden Tate before the deadline.
Mark Ingram ($295 CPP; $4,700 salary)
Our top CPP play at $295 per projected point, Mark Ingram has a rock solid $4,700 price tag due to a seemingly tough matchup against a Philadelphia Eagles defense surrendering the fifth fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. As mentioned in my weekly Yahoo DFS column for FantasyCPR, the Eagles have relinquished a mouth watering 7.94 yards per carry to the RB1 types they faced so far on the season giving Ingram a very high ceiling in this matchup. The New Orleans Saints are likely to install a run and short pass heavy game plan against the Eagles thus giving Ingram the upside to see seventeen plus high efficiency touches.
David Johnson ($300 CPP; $7,500 salary)
At a cool $7,500 salary, our number two CPP play at $300 per projected point, David Johnson is looking like a must play this weekend versus a Oakland Raiders defense that would be beat by more than a few college teams. The Raiders have given up the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs but it is the numbers that really stand out. On the season the Raiders have relinquished 25.1 carries per game for 128.4 rushing yards (second most) and 0.9 touchdowns on the ground to go along with 3.7 receptions for 41.2 receiving yards and 0.3 touchdowns through the air. The Raiders have allowed 5.43 yards per carry and 85.7 rushing yards per game to the good running backs they have faced this season while surrendering 67 receiving yards per game to the most comparable every down skillset type they have faced this season in Melvin Gordon.
Antonio Brown ($309 CPP; $7,800 salary)
There is only one wide receiver in the league I don’t drop in my weekly rankings when they face off against superstar corner Jalen Ramsey; his name is Antonio Brown. Despite a matchup versus Ramsey and a Jacksonville Jaguars defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to enemy wideouts AB is our top ranked receiver for week eleven. Brown lit Ramsey up in their two meetings last year averaging 8.5 receptions, 144.5 receiving yards and a touchdown per game. If that is not enough our top overall receiver and CPP play has found the end zone in all but one contest this season. Sixth in salary rank at $7,800 Brown remains a top play for this weekends GPP contests despite a matchup that appears to be one to shy away from at first glance.
Corey Davis ($332 CPP; $5,600 salary)
Our number two CPP play for week eleven, Corey Davis checks in at a solid $5,600 price tag, which ranks him 23rd in terms of DraftKings salary rank. We currently have Davis pegged as our thirteenth overall receiver for week eleven and the fantasy arrow is pointing up for the uber talented wideout now that Marcus Mariota is rounding back in to form. While this is a tough matchup on paper against an Indianapolis Colts team surrendering the ninth fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, a deeper analysis of the numbers reveals that these numbers may be a facade due to lack of competition. The Colts have given up an average of 6.14 receptions, 89.1 receiving yards and 0.71 touchdowns per contest to the good (at the time, excludes week one version of Tyler Boyd) receivers they have faced this season giving Davis significant upside in this matchup. Davis is second in the NFL with a massive 31.1 percent target share and is fifteenth among receivers with 2.60 yards per pass route belying Davis true upside even if his numbers have yet to reflect his prodigious talent.
Jonnu Smith ($329 CPP; $2,700 salary)
Jonnu Smith is finally coming into his own in the NFL, having found the end zone in two straight contests. Our top CPP play at $329 per projected point based on the strength of his near minimum price tag of $2,700, Smith is our eighteenth overall tight end for week eleven. It is not often we suggest our eighteenth overall tight end for DFS but his weekly usage, especially in the red zone is trending in the right direction (four red zone looks in the past three weeks). Delanie Walker’s heir apparent, Smith will be touchdown dependent to generate fantasy value but in a game with a 51 total there should be plenty of opportunities. Dynasty league players have long been high on Smith, and a game where the Titans may be forced to throw a lot in may finally reveal why.
