Week fives contests are almost upon us and no matter the contest or contests you plan to join identifying the top potential values is paramount in creating an ‘in the money’ lineup. This week we have identified and discussed some of our top cost per projected point (CPP) plays at each position based on our DFS rankings below.
Carson Wentz $277 CPP, Salary $5,900
Through two weeks of the NFL regular-season Carson Wentz has yet to put up a QB1 game. This week versus the Minnesota Vikings that could all change. The Vikings have been giving up a ton of pass yards and will remain without Everson Griffen (mental health) and Trae Waynes (concussion) this weekend. Carson Wentz through his two contests this season leads the NFL in accuracy rating according to playerprofiler coming in at 3.4. Wentz still sports a bevy of weapons in a healthy Alshon Jeffery to go along with Nelson Agholor, Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert and should be able to rack up the fantasy points this week. Already destroyed by the poor man’s Carson Wentz in Josh Allen we expect Wentz to have his “I’m back” game this week and put up over 300 yards passing, at least two touchdowns through the air with another possibly coming on the ground if the coaches will let him run. Start Wentz where needed.
Aaron Jones $312 CPP, Salary $4,300
The Detroit Lions have surrendered over 175 yards rushing to three of the four teams they have played so far this year, the only exception being the team coach Matt Patricia used to scheme against every week for years during practice in the New England Patriots. This is good news for the Green Bay Packers top running back Aaron Jones who still appears to be mired in a timeshare despite his glaring superiority to the Pack’s other backfield options. This writer feels it is only a matter of time before Jones gets a 70 percent share of this backfields touches with Jamaal Williams coming in to be more of a pass blocker when the Pack deem it necessary to have their best blocking back in the game instead of Jones. This week versus the Lions Aaron Jones and the run game figure to see more work than usual with two of the Packers top three receivers looking likely to miss the game with Randall Cobb already ruled out and Geronimo Allison yet to be cleared from concussion protocol less than 24 hours before game time. We have Aaron Jones ranked in our top-15 this week while DK has him slotted as only the 39th highest salary among running backs. Start Jones where needed in what could be a huge game for the sophomore running back.
Joe Mixon $340 CPP, Salary $6,900
Joe Mixon opened the 2018 season en fuego and looks to be priced at a discount over at the DraftKings game despite averaging a scintillating 89.5 yards per game on the ground which is good enough for third in the NFL. Mixon will continue to be used in a workhorse role this season but could see even more touches than usual this week with Giovani Bernard ruled out. The Dolphins have been a sieve to opposing running backs this season rating as the fourth softest against the run by playerprofiler.com and should gift a monster day to the talented sophomore running back. We have still yet to witness Joe Mixon’s fantasy ceiling thus far in his career but as long as his knee has the requisite strength we could get a glimpse of it this weekend. Mixon is our sixth ranked back this week while sporting a DraftKings salary rank of eighth overall. Mixon should see plenty of opportunities to eat in a game that is projected by Vegas to hit 48.5 points with the Bengals six point favorites, a game script that should lead to plenty of opportunities both on the ground and through the air against a team that has proven highly susceptible to both. Start Mixon where possible as we project him to rack up over 100 yards rushing, five receptions and 65 yards receiving with at least one score. The day could be even bigger but Marvin Lewis has expressed concern that Mixon may not be where he needs to be conditioning wise after the two missed contests.
Jordy Nelson $330 CPP, Salary $4,500
As expected when Martavis Bryant was first released Derek Carr and Jordy Nelson have started to click on offense. Even with Bryant now back he has been relegated to an afterthought in the offense plausibly due to the uncertainty of his future in regards to a possible year long or indefinite ban. Nelson has seen more time in the slot and has predictably come on strong because of it in recent weeks to the tune of sixteen targets, eleven receptions, 221 yards and two touchdowns over his last two aided in large part by his 6-173-1 week three line. Nelson has been efficient with his targets so far this year with 11.1 yards per target which ranks him sixth in the NFL. And speaking of targets Nelson ranks fifth in the NFL with three red zone targets including two last week which is what fantasy owners like to hear, especially for a player third on his team in overall targets.
Marquez Valdes Scantling $268 CPP, Salary $3,300
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS) is expected to draw another start this week versus the Detroit Lions possibly as the number two receiver as Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb maybe sidelined for the contest. MVS could be in line for a monster game and a possible ascension to the number two role permanently. Geronimo has never fit the bill as a true number two receiver and Randall Cobb has proven ineffective thus far dating back to last season. As per Mike Tagliere over at FantasyPros MVS ran 70 percent of his routes out of the slot in week four after lining up their consistently in the preseason and has an easy matchup this week versus Jamal Agnew. We expect expect Valdes-Scantling to put up at least 100 yards receiving and a score this week versus the Detroit Lions. He’s expected to be a trendy play this week over at DraftKings which will in turn will lead to many trying to fade the popular play, exploit that opportunity and get him into your lineups wherever possible.
Jared Cook $326 CPP, Salary $4,800
While Rhett Ellison is actually our top CPP play at the tight end position we would be remiss to suggest him as we will be going with Jared Cook at tight end in our own lineups this week. Cook is our number two ranked CPP play this week and our number three ranked tight end for week five. Though only four weeks have passed in the NFL regular-season Jared Cook looks like he has finally, finally lived up to his immense potential. Cook is already 49 percent of the way to his career high in yardage and is on pace for a Travis Kelce type of season. With so called number one receiver Amari Cooper looking to possibly draw shadow coverage from Casey Hayward in this one expect Derek Carr to look to his favorite target in Jared Cook early and often in this one. Start Cook where possible.
