DeShaun Watson comes into week four with a salary of only $7,600 which looks like a bargain this week with a CPP of $362. While there are indeed some cheaper options who are expected to have big days such as Andy Dalton and even Case Keenum, they are likely to be trendy plays this week mitigating their appeal in GPP formats. As always we prefer to stick to our rankings when identifying the best potential values of any given week and this week with Watson squaring off against the Indianapolis Colts is no different. We expect Watson to put up 280+ passing yards and at least two touchdowns through the air versus a Colts team that Vegas is actually projecting to win outright. There should be plenty of opportunity for fantasy points from the sophomore if the game does indeed follow the script that the oddsmakers are projecting with a Texans loss and a 47 point over/under. Start Watson where needed.
Todd Gurley comes in this week with a CPP of $422 while Melvin Gordon comes in at $433 as our two of our top CPP values but this week we will suggest Sony Michel who is our top value of the week with a $418 CPP and a $5,900 total salary. With Rex Burkhead lost for the season Michel will get every opportunity to carve out a featured role. This is not to say James White will not remain heavily involved but remember that Michel was actually a receiving back in college behind Browns second round pick in fellow rookie Nick Chubb at Georgia. Michel should stay involved in both the run and pass game and has a very good chance of seeing the largest salary increase for week five. Expect Michel to be used heavily against a surging Dolphins team that may cause some problems for the Patriots front seven leading to a possible run heavy game plan for the Pats. Michel has a ton of talent and if can just get comfortable in the Patriots offense the sky is the limit here especially against a Dolphins front that just lost William Hayes for the season.
Corey Davis comes in this week with a CPP of $429 due to an absurdly low, reactionary salary of $5,400. If the salary alone is not enough to get you excited, Davis is indeed our top CPP value at the position this week. The Eagles are indeed one of the better defenses in the NFL but with the Eagles expected to jump out to an early lead the Titans should be forced to throw a ton in this one. Davis should revert to the target monster he was in weeks one and two before being completely stifled by the Jaguars D in week three in a low scoring, defensive affair. Davis averaged 10 targets over the first two weeks of the season and with Rishard Matthews released on Thursday he should be able to better that number in week four. Davis is top ten in the NFL (eighth) in Weighted Opportunity Rating at .71, a rating that ties him with Deandre Hopkins and Michael Thomas. Start Davis where needed.
Antonio Callaway looks like a solid bargain find this week with a salary of only $4,500 and a CPP of $458. Callaway was heavily involved in week three after the Josh Gordon trade and that trend should continue this week with the quarterback upgrade to Baker Mayfield now official. Callaway amassed eleven targets last week versus the four receptions he actually hauled in and while he may not see double digits again versus the Raiders he should still be up over eight and if he can be more efficient, and Mayfield’s ball placement skills suggest he should, he could be in line for a monster line versus a suspect Raiders defense. We have Callaway pegged for six receptions, 90 yards and a touchdown. The almighty oddsmakers have the Raiders winning this one which leads to the hope that Baker will be throwing a ton in this one and finding his rookie receiver early and often with the Raiders focusing on slowing down Jarvis ‘Bless em’ Landry.
Okay. Maybe I am a little biased here because OJ Howard actually leads one of my fantasy teams in receiving yards but the fact of the matter is that OJ Howard has been on a tear thus far this season and the good times should continue with Ryan Fitzpatrick still under center for week four. Yes, the Bears defense is going to present a significant challenge for the Ryan Fitzpatrick led offense but game script wise this could lead to more heavy involvement from Fitz’ safety valves with the Bears sure to being applying pressure via the Khalil Mack led pass rush on every snap. Yes, suggesting a player who is essentially in a committee with Cameron Brate is risky but the upside and expected output this week makes him our top tight end value this week with a CPP of $438 due to an exploitable salary of $5,600. Start Howard where needed.
