Rizzla takes a look at the top week seven cost per projected point (CPP) leaders over at FanDuel.
Our top CPP play at the quarterback position this week is none other than Kirk Cousins. While the Jets are in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks with 17.4 per game, a deep dive into their numbers tells a interesting tale. The Jets have faced three of the worst non rookie starters in the NFL so far this season and absolutely demolished Matthew Stafford in what was a sloppy time for a lot of teams in week one (they also saw rookie Baker Mayfield for half of a game). The Jets were lit up for 377 yards and a touchdown by replacement level QB Case Keenum and gave up 301 yards and four touchdowns to a surging Andrew Luck the following week (albeit with three picks). As for Kirk Cousins himself, we all know he has arguably the best receiver duo in football and has been able to elevate his game to a new level this season because of it. Cousins is currently fourth among quarterbacks with 1921 passing yards and sixth with 1022 air yards. The most impressive part of Cousins game this season however is his completion rate under pressure; he is still prone to the bad throws that earned him Tony Romo comparisons, but is now second in the NFL with a 57.2 completion rate under pressure. When compared to his 32.9 percent mark last season which ranked him 21st among quarterbacks we can clearly see that Cousins did indeed make a leap this season with a better supporting cast. Our number two quarterback for week seven, FanDuel has him slotted as the eleventh ranked quarterback at a $8,000 salary, good for a CPP of $351. Start Cousins where possible.
It appears this is one of the weeks where two elite running backs rank as our top CPP plays at the position. Our top overall CPP play is actually Saquon Barkley but he plays on Monday night. Our top two Sunday plays are none other than fellow elite backs Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott.
Todd Gurley has been simply amazing dating back to late last season and shows no signs of slowing down this week against a 49ers defense that was simply shredded by Melvin Gordon in week four and gave up two rushing touchdowns a piece to Kareem Hunt and David Johnson in weeks three and five. Gurley is our first overall running back for week seven but comes in third overall in weekly salary rank. At a cost per projected point of $435 despite a high salary of $10,2000, Todd Gurley once again looks like a bargain. If you can find a way to squeeze him in your lineup this week, do it; ride the proverbial wave until you fall off.
Ezekiel Elliot has a tougher matchup on paper against an underrated Washington defense that has been solid against the run this season. While Washington did indeed bottle up elite smaller backs Christian Mccaffrey and Alvin Kamara to the tune of a combined 44 rushing yards on 14 carries for a meager 3.14 yards per carry, they surrendered 3.6 yards per carry and three total touchdowns to bigger top tier backs in David Johnson and Mark Ingram, suggesting that Elliot is likely to find the end zone in this one even against stacked fronts. As per our friends at playerprofiler Elliot is averaging an impressive 4.8 yards per carry against stacked fronts and 5.1 yards per carry against base fronts of which he faces 31.6 and 46.2 percent of the time respectively. We do expect Elliot to have a tough time running the ball, save for a big run or two, but he will be fed as many touches as he can handle in this one as per usual as he is the Cowboys only true running back option who arguably also doubles as their best receiver. While Elliot has a salary rank of sixth overall this week we have him at fourth suggesting there is some value to be had here. Elliot checks at a CPP of $435 and a salary $8,400 making him our top Sunday play along with the aforementioned Todd Gurley. Start Elliot where possible, especially if you cannot manage to squeeze Gurley in your lineup.
Wonderkid Adam Thielen squares off this week against a New York Jets defense surrendering the eighth most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. With Thielen only one game away from history you can be certain that Thielen will cross 100 yards in this game. If you’ve watched any Minnesota Vikings game this year, you didn’t need to know that Thielen ranks fifth in the NFL with a 37.5 red zone target percentage, to see that Cousins loves him some Thielen in scoring position. Thielen leads all receivers in receptions, receiving yards and fantasy points per game and is number two in air yards but what is even more impressive is that his league leading 81 targets translates to a 31.5 percent target share, a number that also leads the NFL. Mysteriously ranked as the sixth overall receiver with a $8,700 salary, Thielen is our number one overall receiver this week and is our top CPP play at the position at $413 per projected point.
MIke Evans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head into week seven to face off against a Cleveland Browns team giving up the eleventh most points to opposing wide receivers. A deeper dive into the numbers reveals that the Browns have given up 98.2 yards per game and 7.6 receptions to the receivers drafted as WR2’s or higher that they have faced off against this season. Slotted in as the 12th overall receiver with a $7,800 salary, Evans is our fourth overall receiver for week seven. At a cost per projected point of $467 Evans comes in as our number two overall CPP play for the week and is in line for what looks like a monster game. Evans currently sits fourth in air yards and seventh in fantasy points per game on season and is seventh among wide receivers in playerprofiler production premium rating at +31.7 suggesting that Evans, despite a lower target percentage than most of his his WR1 peers, is making the most of his targets to the tune of 11 yards per (tenth among receivers).
Zach Ertz has been a monster this season and is doing his best impression of a number one receiver. Used in that role before Alshon Jeffery returned Ertz has found even more room to operate with Alshon in the lineup. Carson Wentz absolutely loves bigger targets so Ertz is in zero danger of losing his option 1b job. Through six weeks of the NFL season Ertz is first among tight ends in fantasy points per game and also ranks first in targets with 67, receptions with 48 and target percentage at an elite wide receiver level 28.3 percent. Ertz is making the most of his opportunity as he leads all tight ends with 344 air yards and 480 receiving yards. Ertz also ranks among the top five tight ends in fantasy points per route with 0.65, red zone target share at 28.9 percent and end zone target share at 31.2 percent. This week against a Carolina Panthers team giving up the fifth most fantasy points to the tight end position Ertz is expected to be the cost per point leader at a $523 CPP. At a workable salary of $7,800 get our number two ranked tight end in lineups where possible.
