Rizzla discusses the top cost per projected point (CPP) plays for week thirteen daily fantasy football at FanDuel.
With the fantasy regular season almost to a close and the bye weeks finally over, DFS contests are hotter than ever. It is always more advisable to play multiple lineups during non bye weeks due to the glut of available value plays and this week is no different. For the purposes of this column we will be focusing on the top plays based on cost per projected point.
Travis Kelce ($479 CPP; $7,800 salary)
My number one overall tight end for week thirteen, Travis Kelce faces off against a Oakland Raiders defense allowing the seventh most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. With Sammy Watkins banged up and questionable at best, Kelce should see a larger target share than usual. The Raiders surrendered a four reception, 108 yard, one touchdown game to the only elite tight end they faced all season in George Kittle and could give up an even bigger game with Patrick Mahomes likely looking to get Kelce going after a drop marred battle against the Rams prior to their bye. Our top CPP play this week at tight end Kelce is number two in the NFL with a 31 percent target share since Golden Tate joined the Eagles and capped Zach Ertz’ upside.
Patrick Mahomes ($319 CPP; $9,500 salary)
Fantasy superstar Patrick Mahomes has a cupcake matchup this week versus an Oakland Raiders defense surrendering the twelfth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Tied for third most touchdowns against through the air the Raiders will be hard pressed to stop a scorching QB that can only be quelled by extreme pressure, especially when one considers the Raiders have the worst PFF pass rush grade. Stopping Arden Key, who is the Raiders only above average player on the Raiders defensive front is all it will take for the Chiefs to run roughshod over the silver and black and with Andy Reid scheming you can be sure they will have him bottled up for most of the contest. The Raiders have allowed 258.5 passing yards and 2.25 touchdowns per game to the QB1’s they have faced this season and could see these numbers take a major spike if the Chiefs decide to air it out rather than let Hunt go to work on the ground.
Austin Ekeler ($397 CPP; $6,000 salary)
Thrust into a larger role due to Melvin Gordon’s injury Austin Ekeler has a tougher matchup this week versus a Pittsburgh Steelers defense surrendering the ninth fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. Allowing a mere 4.2 yards per carry against for 80.4 rushing yards and 3.8 receptions for 28 yards against on season the Steelers have graded as good against the run in terms of counting stats but have proven to be susceptible to big play backs with elite receiving ability. Case in point is the exciting Christian McCaffrey who managed 77 yards rushing and a touchdown to go with five receptions for 61 yards and two touchdowns. Ekeler is second in NFL with 7.5 yards per touch, and as per playerprofiler leads the NFL with 5.6 true yards per carry. A big play waiting to happen Ekeler leads the NFL with 11.4 percent breakaway run rate (carries of over 15 yards) and despite less than half as many carries as Alvin Kamara (150 to 70), Ekeler has sixteen explosive runs compared to Kamara’s 17 (PFF stat that charts runs of over 10 yards). Ekeler has been a revelation this season but has been stuck behind Melvin Gordon, at 89.5 Austin Ekeler has PFF’s number one grade on offense among all running backs and while many may think this is due to his elite ability out of the backfield Ekeler ranks sixth with a 84.8 rushing grade. A major factor in this is the fact that Ekeler is second among backs with at least 55 carries with a downright impressive 3.69 yards after contact per attempt. Ekeler is poised for a monster game in terms of yards from scrimmage and will be given all the work he can handle in a potential shootout against the Steelers.
Spencer Ware ($344 CPP; $5,200 salary)
My thirteenth overall back and the also the top CPP back for week thirteen, Spencer Ware squares off against a hapless Oakland Raiders defense giving up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Not only have the Raiders allowed the most rushing yards against in the NFL but they are doing so at a pitiful 4.9 yards per carry. Giving up 134.6 rushing yards and 0.8 touchdowns and 3.4 receptions and 36.5 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs Spencer Ware could be in line for a monster fantasy performance. Pegged at bargain $5,200 price tag Ware is shaping up as a great value play following Kareem Hunt’s release, with as much, if not more cost value than any back in the league this week, especially when matchups and depth charts are considered.
Deandre Hopkins ($417 CPP; $8,800 salary)
My top overall receiver for week thirteen DeAndre Hopkins squares off against a Cleveland Browns defense relinquishing the eleventh most points to enemy wideouts. The Browns have surrendered an appealing 6.4 receptions and 83.66 receiving yards to the WR1’s they have faced this season signalling the cream of the crop should have a massive game despite Denzel Ward’s emergence. The Browns have allowed the fifth most yards to wide receiver position with 181.5 and the sixth most receptions at 14.2 per game, a stat which is of increased importance when we are talking about the NFL’s leader in target percentage.at 31 percent. Hopkins simply sees more targets and is larger part of the offense than any other receiver which is why analyzing both of these number sets is necessary to illuminate Hopkins’ true upside this week. Further buoying his value is the fact that Hopkins will likely see more of TJ Carrie than Denzel Ward in this contest as Ward has spent most of the season as the left corner while Hopkins typically lines up on the opposite side of the field.
Odell Beckham Jr. ($430 CPP; $8,200 salary)
OBJ squares off against a Chicago Bears defense allowing the fifteenth fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. However a deeper look at the Bears numbers reveals that they have been giving up 14.6 receptions and 179.8 receiving yards per game to the wide receiver position, numbers which rank as the fourth most and the sixth most respectively. Drilling down even further reveals that the Bears are relinquishing a whopping 8.75 receptions and a cool 84.75 receiving yards per game to the WR1’s they have faced this season, which much like with Hopkins, is of increased importance when talking about a player like OBJ who ranks third in the NFL with a massive 28 percent target share.
Update: Hunt was sent home following the surfacing of a disturbing video involving the player in February.
