Rizzla discusses the top cost per projected point (CPP) plays this week at DraftKings.
For all intents and purposes this weekends slate feels like another heavy bye week. With six teams playing Thursday and both the Sunday and Monday nighters off the book, that makes 12 teams not in play for this weekends GPP contest. As always we will take a look at this week’s main slate and highlight the players projected to produce the highest cost based projected points. The less we have to spend per point the more attractive a particular option may be as a play for this weekend. With that said, without further adieu, let’s jump right in.
Andrew Luck ($256 CPP; $6,600 salary)
Tossing an amazing 24 touchdowns in his last seven contests (54 touchdown pace extrapolated over a full season) a surging Andrew Luck squares off against a Miami Dolphins defense allowing the sixth fewest fantasy points to enemy quarterbacks. As is often the case in fantasy football the numbers are misleading without looking at the fantasy context as the Dolphins have faced only three QB1’s on the entire season. In those contests the Dolphins have gifted 3.33 touchdowns per game suggesting that there will not be much in the way to stop Andrew Luck from throwing three plus touchdowns for the eighth consecutive contest. Our top CPP play of the week at $256 per projected point Andrew Luck’s $6,600 price tag screams high floor bargain even if he presents zero value in terms of personal ranking vs salary ranking as he ranks second in both. Roll with Luck where needed.
Gus Edwards ($295 CPP; $4,400 salary)
Our top CPP play for week twelve at $295 per projected point Gus Edwards burst onto the scene in week eleven and will look to make it two consecutive 100 yard rushing performances with a score this weekend against a lifeless Raiders defense allowing the sixth most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The Raiders are relinquishing an NFL high 131.5 rushing yards per game to enemy backs at a mouth watering 4.8 yards per carry clip making this a prime matchup play to exploit. With a 105 speed score Edwards profiles as someone who should have continued success at the NFL level and sees a synergistic boost playing as a power complement to quarterback Lamar Jackson’s slashing style. With Alex Collins unable to see a full workload due to migraine issues and the Ravens being decidedly run first with Jackson under center Edwards should see plenty of work this week against the Raiders in a contest the Ravens are favored in by 10.5 points. If this game script holds true Edwards and Jackson alike should see all of the carries they can handle making Edwards a strong play even if he may be too trendy for some to stomach.
Josh Adams ($298 CPP; $3,800 salary)
Our number two CPP play of the week at $298 per projected point, Josh Adams carries a cool $3,800 price tag for this weekends contest, making Adams a potential steal value wise. Facing off against a New York Giants defense giving up the tenth most fantasy points to opposing running backs Adams should be able to exploit this advantage and parlay it into solid fantasy production. Adams has emerged as the clear lead back in recent weeks and while his touch count does not truly reflect that fact, the writing is on the wall. Adams is the Eagles best runner and has even seen involvement in the passing game and should at least double the touches he saw versus the Saints in week eleven. The Eagles are six point favorites in this contest suggesting that Adams will indeed have every opportunity to garner a significant enough amount of touches to move the needle in this weeks DFS contests. Our 22nd overall running back for week twelve, Adams should see over 100 yards from scrimmage with a score vs a Giants team that gave up 108 rushing yards to Wentz and two pedestrian backs in their previous meeting this season.
Courtland Sutton ($311 CPP; $4,400 salary)
While Courtland Sutton will have the misfortune of doing battle with a confoundingly good Pittsburgh Steelers defense and more specifically with star corner Joe Haden we still have Sutton as a solid value this week. 42nd in terms of DraftKings salary rank, Sutton is our 19th overall receiver for week twelve and our top CPP play at $311 per projected point. Graded as having a 13 percent matchup disadvantage against Haden as per PFF Sutton will still see a healthy dose of targets and while Haden only allows a 54 percent catch rate in coverage, Sutton was only operating at a 51 percent clip to begin with. Also per PFF Sutton is currently seventh among wide receivers with nine of his 45 targets being in the end zone, a target rate of 20 percent that places him first among any receiver with over nine such looks. Sutton should continue to be heavily involved in this area even if he is not much of a factor between the 20’s outside of a few shot plays. Roll with Sutton as a contrarian play who will not be heavily utilized this week in DFS.
Emmanuel Sanders ($330 CPP; $5,600 salary)
Sanders has been a disappointment since Demaryius Thomas’ ouster from the Denver Broncos, leaving a receiver who was a WR1 in average fantasy points through eight weeks of the season to a mere $5,600 salary. Sanders will square off against a Steelers defense that has been surprisingly good against the pass and is projected to primarily do battle with slot corner Mike Hilton as per PFF. Hilton has allowed a 63 percent catch rate on the season but presents a neutral matchup for Sanders with neither player having an advantage as per PFF’s WR/CB advantage metric. At a $330 cost per projected point Sanders is our top ranked CPP play as we expect the Broncos to be forced to feed their slot receiver heavily with Joe Haden expected to be draped on the aforementioned Courtland Sutton. 22nd in terms of salary rank, Sanders presents potential value as our current 12th overall receiver for this weekend.
Cameron Brate ($313 CPP; $3,600 salary)
Cameron Brate will be one of the most popular plays of the week at the tight end position as OJ Howard was placed on IR after this weeks DK salaries had already been determined. Our top CPP play of the week at $313 per projected point Cameron Brate has a plus matchup this week even if the often misleading fantasy points against tool may not suggest that this is the case. As mentioned in our FanDuel write up on Brate, the 49ers have faced only two ranked TE1’s on the entire season giving up a paltry Jared Cook 2-20 line to while giving up 8-114 to Travis Kelce which is still good for a six reception, 67 yard average. The 49ers also notably gave up a 5-104 line to Jimmy Graham in what looks like it will go down as his best game in a Green Bay Packers uniform this season. Brate should threaten six receptions and 80 receiving yards in this contest and should see at least a couple of red zone targets from his bosom buddy Jameis Winston. In a game with an exciting 51 total there should be plenty of offensive fireworks and thus opportunities for Brate to make good on his TE1 potential for this weekend. At a minuscule $3,600 price tag all players who manage multiple lineups are advised to get Brate in to at least one of them. Avoid Brate at your own risk.
