With week four just around the corner we will take some time to take a look at which players have seen the most notable increase or decrease in dynasty league value.
In this week’s edition we will take a look at quarterbacks and wide receivers that have seen their dynasty value make notable movement.
Patrick Mahomes – Mahomes has shot up our rankings after a historic three week stretch showed he is indeed ready for Sunday’s. Mahomes always possessed a sky high fantasy ceiling but the fact that we are seeing it within his first handful of starts is remarkable. While defenses will try to adjust as more film on him becomes available, the fact that he plays for one of the more creative offensive minds with one of, if not the best, skill position groups in all of football should help him remain a top fantasy option for as long as Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill remain in Kansas City. Mahomes has jumped all the way to number two in our dynasty league quarterback rankings and should stay in the top three conversation for the next decade.
Calvin Ridley – Though he only moved up four spots in our dynasty rankings from 22 to 18, the four spot jump remains notable because he has entered borderline WR1 territory. The reason Matt Ryan has always been a thorn in the side of Julio Jones’ fantasy value is the same reason he will be such a boost for Ridley. Matt Ryan is and has been more conservative than fantasy owners may like when it comes to targeting Julio and now with an electric receiver opposite him constantly in man coverage Ryan will continue to look his way a ton. Ridley’s redraft stock has taken off as he has already ascended the depth chart and entered WR3 territory with the prospect of WR2 status glaring on the horizon. Target Ridley with an aggressive offer in dynasty formats before he becomes untouchable.
Mike Williams – Mike Williams is another receiver who only moved up four spots in our rankings but his movement remains notable as he has entered the dynasty league WR1 conversation. Williams may settle in as more of a 65-70 yards per game receiver but the yearly promise of ten plus touchdowns should keep him sniffing WR1 territory. Williams is a big bodied, red zone machine with legit WR1 talent and would likely function as one on about fifteen teams in the NFL. Now that Mike Williams has pushed Tyrell Williams to a deep threat role and the number four option on offense Williams should see his weekly consistency continue to improve. There is some long term concern with Philip Rivers not getting any younger and his successor not currently on the roster but Williams profiles as one of the most opportunity based QB proof receivers we have seen come into the league in recent years.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is yet another name who has only climbed four spots in our rankings but as he has officially entered the WR1 conversation for dynasty leagues he warrants discussion in this edition of dynasty league corner. The feeling was JuJu would remain a high end WR2 option but he has emerged as a legitimate WR1 candidate and he should remain a WR1 option in 2019 drafts and beyond. JuJu has entered the realm of the elite thanks to Big Ben targeting him mercilessly out of the slot, where he has lined up on over 80 percent of his snaps in 2018. JuJu is now narrowly trailing Antonio Brown in targets and this is a trend that could continue if JuJu remains in the slot. Big Ben proved when he had the Wallace-Brown-Sanders trio that he is more than willing to give young and emerging wide receivers more targets than their superstar counterparts en route to making them superstars in their own right. JuJu is the next man up.
Robert Woods had the biggest jump of any top tier wide receiver as he jumped over 20 spots to 29th in our current dynasty league rankings for wide receivers. We felt that Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp would emerge as the Rams top two options in the passing game but Woods has remained the number one target and his quarterback Jared Goff has taken another step in his development further cementing Woods’ dynasty value. Robert Woods has always had WR2 talent but now that he has solidified his opportunity and thus target share he should be treated as such going forward by the entire fantasy community. Speaking of target share, thus far in the 2018 season Robert Woods has enjoyed a 29 percent target share which when put in context is slightly lower than what Antonio Brown has seen at 30 percent and higher than what JuJu has seen at 27 percent. Woods is legit and shame on yours truly for not recognizing game and that Woods would remain a fantasy force despite the addition of Brandin Cooks.
Will Fuller jumped 12 spots in our dynasty wide receiver rankings as he has continued to light the fantasy world on fire with Deshaun Watson in the lineup. Fuller is the type of game breaking wide receiver defenses need to double team but are unable to due to the presence of Deandre Hopkins across from him. Only an injury to Hopkins or Watson can put a cap on Fuller’s weekly and yearly upside. Fuller has amassed a 27 percent target share in the two games he’s played thus far in 2018 which cements his weekly WR2 upside in redrafts and keeps him in said conversation in dynasty leagues. Fuller should only continue to improve and build rapport with Watson as the weeks and months go on and is someone dynasty league owners should target heavily while the bye week crunch may make some rival managers antsy.
Kenny Golladay jumped 12 spots in our dynasty rankings and now looks like a solid WR2 dynasty opton. There was some concern he would remain behind both Marvin Jones and Golden Tate in targets but Matthew Stafford loves his big, acrobatic receiver and will continue to feed him at will going forward. The hype train should not get out of control as he is still just a WR2 option and despite his height he will never reach Megatron levels of production. Another thing to note here is that Golladay does indeed play with two good receivers which has led to a lower target share of only 20 percent, numbers that have still led to solid production over three weeks with the Lions being forced to pass due to gameflow (Stafford is third in the league in pass attempts), but could cause some concern with the Lions finally finding a run game. Golladay remains a strong trade target in dynasty formats but expectations and offers should be tempered in simple 8 man or less keeper leagues.
Losing Value
Andrew Luck has looked like a shell of his former self; there were legit questions as to whether this was due to physical limitations or offensive play calling through the first two weeks but after the week three substitution of Jacoby Brissett in to throw a hail mary coupled with the missing zip on Luck’s passes versus what we are used to seeing from him we can safely surmise that Luck is not all the way back. And unfortunately, he may never get there. As mentioned his yards per attempt and yards per completion have crashed to career lows and this may be as much on the offensive play calling but stats are stats. Luck appears to be out of luck and has dropped ten spots in our most recent quarterback rankings and is someone you may want to try to deal away in order to help pry away a coveted asset from a rival GM. Luck is still name brand and those who don’t dig as deep as you on a weekly basis as far as it pertains to fantasy may still think Luck is elite and will find his way back to pre-injury form. Do it now before it’s too late.
John Ross despite his obvious talent has continued to disappoint and has seen Tyler Boyd run away with the number two job for the Cincinnati Bengals. Ross has fell 12 spots to flex territory as he continues to struggle despite opportunity. He is still young and relatively fresh in terms of game snaps but he is going to have to step up in a big way and become a lot more efficient with his targets to become fantasy relevant as the Bengals third receiver. His dynasty stock has not completely bottomed out like some of the other names on this list but he is definitely trending in the wrong direction. Ross remains an obvious stash in deeper dynasty formats but should be viewed as a potential trade asset in simple keeper leagues.
Donte Moncrief has seen a 24 spot drop in our dynasty rankings so far this season, partially due to risers at the position but in no small part due to his failure to live up to expectations in an offense where he finally had a weekly role. The way things are going in Jacksonville if Marqise Lee was healthy Moncrief would be reduced to about 20 snaps per game and far from fantasy relevance. Moncrief remains a dynasty option but he is no longer on a talent scholarship in our rankings. Moncrief will be given every opportunity to succeed this season but it has become apparent that he is more of a flex option than a WR2 as far as dynasty leagues are concerned and he should be treated as such. Frustratingly Moncrief remains a bench stash in dynasty but is someone owners may look to part with in non original round keeper leagues.
Josh Doctson has tumbled 33 spots in our latest dynasty rankings as it now seems he may just be unable to put it all together at the NFL level. While Alex Smith is a better overall quarterback than Kirk Cousins, Cousins remains the more prolific passer and Doctson with Smith at the helm has become somewhat of an afterthought in Washington’s offense. Smith has commonly supported only one receiver, tight end and running back and until further notice those names are Jamison Crowder, Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson. Doctson had and still has a lot of promise it just seems like he may not be able to unlock it it Washington as Jay Gruden’s NFC East version of AJ Green in his offensive scheme.
DeVante Parker has dropped 22 spots in our rankings as another player no longer on a talent scholarship. Parker has WR1 tools but does not seem to have the football IQ or availability to realize his potential. It is quite alarming that year after year in a wide open receiver corps Parker has failed to shine and now with a deep, yet lacking in top end talent depth chart, Parker has still failed to rise to the occasion and take advantage of what looks like his final year in a Dolphins uniform. Perhaps he finds new life at his next destination but depending on the depth of your league and size of rosters Parker is someone you may even consider dropping to the waiver wire. Parker remains an upside bench stash in dynasty leagues but at some point simple keeper league owners may want to look elsewhere for help. Try to utilize Parker as trade sweetner to land a coveted target.
Dante Pettis dropped ten spots immediately following the Jimmy Garoppolo injury. Jimmy G will be back but alot of where we had Pettis pegged this year relied on Jimmy G’s health and superior ability versus backup CJ Beathard. Beathard is a QB who is more of a checkdown king than gunslinger and the entire wide receiver corps in San Francisco figures to suffer for it, none more than the oft hyped Marquise Goodwin but it is Pettis who actually falls from the rungs of fantasy relevance in all but the deepest of leagues where he still remains nothing more than a bench stash you’d have to worry about even during byes. Pettis still maintains his theoretical upside but may have to show and prove this year before the 49ers look to next year’s draft for a stud wide receiver to play alongside Goodwin.
TY Hilton dropped 14 spots in our latest dynasty rankings as he looks more like a WR2 going forward with Andrew Luck noticeably limited and lacking the arm strength he entered the league with. Hilton is a good enough route runner that he can still operate as a poor man’s Larry Fitzgerald but Luck looks unlikely to be able to consistently take advantage of the fact that Hilton can take the lid off the top of defenses thus mitigating his fantasy upside. Hilton is likely stuck with Luck until at least 2020 when his current contract expires and that is a deathblow to his fantasy upside. Hilton remains a solid buy low candidate however on the off chance that Andrew Luck’s arm strength returns over the course of this season.
