Fantasy Football Dynasty Rookie Rankings 2014
We have ranked over 50 rookies that seem primed to make dynasty league fantasy impacts on the offensive side of the ball. As always running backs come at a premium so we have some ranked higher than you will see from others. We are among the lowest on Bishop Sankey and suggest those outside of two QB leagues wait on Johnny Manziel.
Sammy Watkins gets the number one slot as the player with the most special skill set in this draft class and one of only two players who will be thrust into a number one receiver role immediately. Watkins has long-term WR1 upside though he is not expected to be anything more than a WR2 in his rookie season due to E.J Manuel still developing and playing in one of the most run heavy offenses in the NFL. Watkins has a little Torrey Smith and Randall Cobb to his game and will be ready to explode once E.J Manuel is ready.
Mike Evans gets the nod at number two and is another receiver who has potential WR1 upside, though we may not see him realize it until Vincent Jackson is no longer with the Bucs. Mike Evans seems primed for low-end WR2/high end WR3 numbers this season and he is expected to haul in 6-8 TD’s and 800 plus yards and post a season similar to what Riley Cooper put up in 2013 numbers wise. Cooper finished with 47 receptions, 835 yards and 8 TD’s on route to a top-25 season. We expect Evans to finish a little lower than that as we expect a larger number of receivers to put post better overall numbers than that in 2014.
Brandin Cooks is rated at third overall. He is guaranteed to make an instant impact and has more skill than Mike Evans albeit in a much smaller frame. Cooks figures to see work on the outside, in the slot and out of the backfield and should function as the Saints moveable chess piece amassing 70 plus receptions per year. Cooks’ upside is capped as Drew Brees is not getting any younger but he should be a PPR asset from year one. Cooks looks to have long-term WR2 upside and could quickly become one of the leagues top deep threats with the astoundingly deep ball accuracy Drew Brees under center.
Carlos Hyde comes in at number four as he looks in line to be the feature back for the 49ers as soon as next season. San Fran runs the ball a ton so we could see Hyde flirt with 200 plus touches and still see Frank Gore have 280 plus this season. This is also good news for those who worry about the presence of Marcus Lattimore. Unless Lattimore can regain pre-injury form this should be Hyde’s backfield with Lattimore being used as the number two.
Jeremy Hill is projected as Giovani Bernard’s long-term backup but Hill should still see 200-250 carries per year as soon as 2015 with 200+ touches looking like a distinct likelihood in 2014. Hill should eventually see more overall snaps than Gio as he grades out as the better pass protector and also has plus hands coming out of the backfield. Gio will start but Hill should get enough yearly touches and goal-line work to be a RB2 going forward. For perspective BenJarvus Green-Ellis had seven touchdowns last season and does not possess anything close to the talent level of Jeremy Hill.
DeVante Adams has a sky high dynasty outlook as he is expected to be a top two receiver in Green Bay by next season when both Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson are free agents. Adams should pass Jarrett Boykin on the depth chart by mid-season and become a starter in the Packers based three wideout formation. Adams has a ton of talent and should become a WR2 mainstay by 2015 with Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball.
Jordan Matthews will eventually battle Jeremy Maclin for number one duties in this offense and may function as the teams deep threat as well with Maclin being more of a possession receiver. We expect Maclin to beat out Matthews in total touchdowns most years but Matthews may end up with the yardage in Chip Kelly’s offense. It is hard not to get excited about Matthews talent on a team with only one good wide receiver and we should see him push for WR2 numbers as soon as this year.
It feels like a disservice to have a talent like Odell Beckham and have him ranked so low but that is more an indicator of the talent in this draft class as opposed to an indictment of Beckham’s. Odell Beckham should immediately step in to the Hakeem Nicks role and become the Giants true number one receiver. As we will see in Green Bay Jordy Nelson is the team’s number one receiver but slot man Randall Cobb may see more receptions and targets, we expect a similar scenario to play out with Beckham and Victor Cruz. Beckham has highlight reel talent as was ranked as high as number four in our rankings immediately following the NFL Draft. We see Beckham as a long-term WR2 who should push for top-25 status as early as this season. Beckham has the talent to be the top receiver in this draft class.
Eric Ebron will be the next big thing at tight end and will join the elite options hopefully by 2015. Expectations should be tempered in year one however as rookie tight ends usually take longer to acclimate to the NFL but with Joe Lombardi calling plays and Matthew Stafford throwing the ball there is reason to believe we could see the talented Ebron break out as a rookie. Pass on Ebron at your own peril, Ebron could be a top five tight end as soon as the 2015 season.
DeVonta Freeman is an impressive running back who seems to be in line to be the Falcons future starting running back and should carve out a flex2 worthy role in his rookie year. Freeman is an exciting runner who can also help in the passing game. He will likely max out as an RB2 if he becomes a starter but will be more valuable in PPR formats. Freeman is set up for long term success playing in an offense with Julio Jones as teams will be forced to respect the deep ball and play bracket coverage once Roddy White moves on.
Finally we come to Bishop Sankey. Sankey will be number one on some of your draft boards due to immediate running back need as Sankey is the only rookie runner with a feature job being handed to him. Sankey is versatile and has every-down skills but does not really jump out at you on tape though he does look to be ‘good enough’. Sankey projects as someone who will be welcoming a new backfield mate in the next two years and will function as part of a committee. The Titans O-Line is finally trending up and Sankey should be an RB2 until further notice albeit a unexciting one. It is very rare we are not excited by the highlights of an early-down running back.
Marqise Lee is a wide receiver who seems primed to make a Keenan Allen type breakout for the Jaguars. Lee was one of the top receiver prospects in 2012 and entered 2013 as one of the favorites to be the first wideout off the board in the 2014 NFL Draft, however injuries and the loss of Matt Barkley and Robert Woods caused his production to slip and scouts to question the legitimacy of the talent he showed in 2012. Lee has the talent to become a WR2 mainstay for years to come if Justin Blackmon does not return to the Jaguars (Blackmon is more talented). I do believe Lee projects better as an elite number two than a bonafide number one as he can feast against single coverage.
Cody Latimer could see starts this season for the Broncos if any of the top three wideouts get injured but he also possesses the talent to pass Emmanuel Sanders for an outside receiver job as Sanders is more suited for the slot where he is expected to be moved in 2015 once Wes Welker hits free agency. Latimer has 80 reception, 1,000 yard, 8 touchdown floor as a starter as long as Peyton Manning is under center and he would be ranked higher on our list if how long Manning will continue playing was not in question. Latimer should be a WR2 option by 2015.
Andre Williams is a very exciting runner on tape. He was not a receiving threat in college but he is above average in pass protection and has a lot more talented than Rashad Jennings. Williams should emerge as the starter in the Giants backfield by mid-season. Much has been made about his lack of receiving ability but Adrian Peterson was not a receiving threat coming into the league and Alfred Morris still has not proven he can be one and both are RB1’s and two of the top rushers in the NFL. Williams will post RB2 numbers once he becomes a starter and is someone to target late in redraft leagues.
Terrance West could take over the Browns backfield as soon as this year and seemingly no later than 2016. Ben Tate has more talent than West but he has not proven that he is able to stay healthy at the NFL level. West produced downright astonishing numbers at Towson versus lesser competition and is a proven workhorse. The only knock on West’s fantasy stock is the presence of Isaiah Crowell who may be even more talented than West. Crowell comes with off-field baggage however and could be off the team in short-order if he cannot get his head right. West could find RB2 level value in year one even as the lesser back in a committee as the Browns are expected to run a ton.
Ka’Deem Carey is the future of the Bears backfield and will push for RB1 numbers when he finally gets the nod. Carey is a draft and stash player and is someone you will have to carry on your bench for a year or two before he becomes a starter but will become one of the most coveted runners in fantasy once he gets his shot. Carey is an every-down back who should excel in Marc Trestman’s system. Buy low.
If someone told you last season that Tre Mason was joining the Rams backfield in 2014 we all would assume he would seize hold of the starting job. Following Zac Stacy’s impressive performance last season however many are writing off Mason as having a ceiling as the lesser part of a committee with Stacy. The fact of the matter still remains that Mason is a superior runner and while he may not be as good in pass protection as Stacy he is indeed the better runner and also possess reliable hands out of the backfield. It may not happen this season but Mason should take over as the starter in the Rams backfield with Stacy functioning as the preferred third down back. Mason has a much better pedigree than Stacy and the Rams offensive line will open gaping holes for either back. Mason projects as an RB2 once he grabs hold of the starters gig.
Donte Moncrief is a raw, project player but is someone who quite possibly has the most tools in this draft class to become an WR1 mainstay, especially with Andrew Luck throwing him the ball. His redraft outlook is bleak with Nicks, Wayne, Hilton, Rogers and more ahead of him on the depth chart but is someone who could explode as soon as 2015. For 2014 we believe he has the talent to pass the electric T.Y Hilton on the depth chart but that may not happen until late in the season.
Kelvin Benjamin is ranked really low as we believe he profiles as an eventual number two in the Panthers offense. In year one however he is in line to be the top rookie receiver as he should see 100 plus targets and haul in around eight touchdowns on the season. Benjamin and Cam are an ideal pairing and we expect Benjamin to really show his wares once the Panthers get a number one that will allow him to see single coverage every game. Benjamin has some drop issues in college but still projects as a player who should be a WR3 with WR2 upside for years to come.
Johnny Manziel could be the number one overall dynasty option if we had a crystal ball that let us know that Johnny Football could stand up to the pounding he will receive over a 16 game season in the pros. Manziel has a ton of talent and is playing under an offensive coordinator that has a proven track record of being able to scheme to get the most out mobile quarterbacks as was seen in RGIII’s rookie year. As a sixteen game starter Manziel has top-15 upside in fantasy leagues right now and should be knocking on the QB1 door for years to come. The Browns will be a run heavy team capping Manziel’s passing upside but he will be able to get it done on the ground as well buoying his fantasy stock.
Charles Sims was one of the most exciting running backs on tape in this draft class and has a little Matt Forte to his game albeit with a little more explosion. Sims should step right in as the team’s third down back and will eventually push for lead duties in the backfield if Doug Martin cannot show his rookie season form. Either way we are going to see a committee attack in Tampa and Sims should be able to carve out flex value unless he gets promoted to starter in which case he would be an RB2.
Terry Bridgewater profiles as a QB2 until Adrian Peterson moves on from the Vikings. Bridgewater will have some QB1 weeks but his pass attempts will be in the bottom half of the league year in and year out as long as the Vikings have Purple Jesus to lean on. With that said we expect Bridgewater to be an efficient passer in the west coast offense and he could push for top-15 numbers each year as he is expected to pick up some yardage on the ground. Bridgewater is our top ranked QB in this draft class but Manziel profiles better for fantasy.
Martavis Bryant is the receiver Big Ben has been waiting years for. Big Ben has been a QB1 level quarterback for the past few season and could tack on an extra 3-4 touchdowns with a big target like Bryant out wide. Bryant only has to beat out Lance Moore for snaps this season and should see work in three wide sets with Brown kicking into the slot. Bryant projects as a potential number one in the Steelers offense though it may take him a few years to get there. Bryant has more straight-line speed than either Wheaton or Brown but does not have the same acceleration coming out of his cuts which leads one to believe that it is Bryant and not Wheaton who will become the Steelers deep threat once Bryant gets up to speed. Bryant profiles as a flex player with WR2 upside.
Allen Robinson has the tools to eventually become the number one receiver for the Jaguars pushing Marqise Lee to the number two where he can really explode. Robinson has a size advantage over Lee and has the aforementioned tools to become a better number one receiver than Lee. With that said Lee is more pro ready and is more of a sure thing. Robinson does not have elite speed and profiles more as a number two receiver and should push for WR3 status by 2015.
Isaiah Crowell could be the most talented running back in this draft class. He looks exceptional on tape, boasts an every-down skill set and has the build of a workhorse back. He is in a crowded backfield at this time but could form a deadly one-two punch with Terrance West by 2016. Crowell projects as a potential RB2 with RB1 upside.
Jace Amaro was a prolific college receiving tight end and should be heavily targeted in year one by Geno Smith. Amaro may be the team’s second best receiver and should function as Smith’s safety valve over the middle. Amaro should get the starting nod over Jeff Cumberland and see 80 plus targets this season. Amaro projects as a TE2 who should eventually push for TE1 status once Geno gets going.
Logan Thomas has the skill set to become a QB1 force if Bruce Arians can develop him behind a solid mentor in Carson Palmer. Thomas has the tools to become the top quarterback from this draft class if Arians can work his magic. Best case scenario would be for him to be tutored by Arians and Palmer for the next two to three seasons and then take over as a Cam Newton like starter. Thomas is set up for success with Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, John Brown and Andre Ellington in the desert.
Paul Richardson is a deep threat that will be able to help stretch the field for the Seahawks. We do not project much of a fantasy impact in year one but with Pete Carroll’s competition mantra we may see Richardson as a starter at some point this season as he can really open up the pass and run game as a clear-out type receiver. Richardson should eventually settle in as a flex option with WR3 upside for Russell Wilson and the Seahawks.
Blake Bortles should be a solid QB2 for about a decade as the Jaguars did a good job of getting the rookie some receiving talent to grow with and they also brought in Strom Johnson who was the starting running back and Bortles teammate at UCF. Not a huge fan of Bortles personally but I believe it will be pretty hard to fail with receivers like Lee, Robinson and possibly Justin Blackmon lining up out wide.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins may see limited snaps to start his career with Brandon Myers and Tim Wright in town but make no mistake ASJ was drafted to start for the Bucs in the near future. A receiving tight end with solid possession and red-zone skills ASJ will become a high end TE2 with TE1 upside once he becomes the full-time starter.
Bruce Ellington could become a Colin Kaepernick favorite as soon as 2015. Ellington will bring another dimension to the 49ers offense as a vertical field-stretcher who can play on the outside. Ellington has some intrigue in dynasty leagues as Michael Crabtree may walk in free agency, Anquan Boldin is getting older and Steve Johnson only has two years remaining on his contract after this campaign. Ellington projects as a WR3 with WR2 upside.
Jarvis Landry is just the weapon Ryan Tannehill needs. Landry is a sure handed possession receiver who is willing to work across the middle of the field and is a good enough blocker to supplant the overrated Brian Hartline on running downs. Landry may be best suited for a slot role in the NFL but he can be a serviceable number two receiver for the Dolphins as soon as this year though owners will probably have to wait until 2015 or 2016 to see him really breakout.
Derek Carr landed in a good spot in Oakland behind a veteran in Matt Schaub who looked like he was done last season in Houston. There is little reason to believe that James Jones and Rod Streater will help resuscitate a player who could not get it going throwing to two superior receivers in Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins. Carr has a good skill set and despite an unheralded receiver corps could find QB2 value in year one and beyond. The presence of two excellent receiving backs in Run DMC and MJD will aid Carr in his development.
Storm Johnson joins his college teammate quarterback Blake Bortles in Jacksonville and should immediately compete for the starting role behind a middling Toby Gerhart. Johnson profiles similarly to Gerhart as a slightly above average running back who can play on all three downs. Johnson projects as a RB3/flex as someone who is likely to be in a timeshare of some proportion for most of his career. In redraft however he could post RB2 numbers if he can run away from Gerhart.
James White could be a draft day steal for fantasy owners as he is currently behind two Patriots running backs on expiring contracts. White has been billed as a Shane Vereen type running back with an ability to carry a heavier load on the ground. White could be thrust into fantasy relevance in 2014 if we see either more Stevan Ridley fumbles or another Shane Vereen injury. White projects as a change of pace back that sees most of his work on third downs and looks set for a career as no higher than a flex option in the lesser part of a committee.
John Brown is the deep threat the Cardinals need to open up both the pass and the run game. He will be nothing more than a flex option until Larry Fitzgerald leaves town and has WR3 upside when that eventually happens.
Zach Mettenberger has some of the best tools of any QB in this draft class but may not be ready to start for the Titans until 2015. This should be Jake Locker’s last chance to prove himself, especially as an old regime passer. Mettenberger could really thrive in an offense with two legit receiving weapons in Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter, he just needs the opportunity. Mettenberger profiles as a QB2 with QB1 upside.
Lache Seastrunk is a very talented running back with better speed than starter Alfred Morris. Seastrunk profiles as a home-run hitting change-of-pace back but has the ability to be a starter if Alfred Morris goes down with an injury. Seastrunk should pass Roy Helu on the depth chart in short order though he will be relegated to third string on passing downs until he proves he can be a reliable threat out of the backfield. We expect his snaps to be limited until he proves his hands at which time he could be a solid bye week filler and an explosive RB3 if Morris ever goes down.
Shaq Evans a sure handed possession receiver that will look to improve the Jets receiving corps. He can play on the outside but is not a field stretcher and will rely on short to intermediate routes while Decker and Hill get the deep targets. Armed with the best 10 yard split of this years combine Evans could become a fantasy factor in year one. Evans will be Geno’s Stedman Bailey.
Jeff Janis is a measurables monster who may take some seasoning to acclimate himself to the NFL game due to coming out of division II. Janis ran a 4.42 at 6’3 and could become the Packers new deep threat if and when Jordy Nelson leaves in free agency. If your league is deep enough he is someone you want to stash in dynasty. Janis is a strong receiver who should not have much trouble with press coverage.
Troy Niklas is a very impressive tight end and though a lot has been made about Bruce Arians not utilizing his tight ends he can still become a reliable possession tight end a la Heath Miller of the Steelers. Niklas may not see much fantasy value in year one but profiles as a high end TE2 once he gets the starting job sewn up.
The speedy Jerick McKinnon should have no trouble beating out Matt Asiata for backup duties behind Adrian Peterson and profiles as a solid change of pace back who could flirt with RB2 numbers if AP suffers an injury. McKinnon is a stellar athlete who performed well in all the combine drills and he can also play cornerback. McKinnon with some seasoning and work on the jugs machine could be the heir apparent to All Day.
TJ Jones can explode into fantasy value if Ryan Broyles cannot prove that he is able to stay healthy. The Lions need a sure handed number three receiver and Jones may be their man as he has very little competition behind the injury prone Broyles. The Canadian has plus hands and runs solid routes and will push to replace fellow countryman Nate Burleson in the slot for the Lions. Jones posted an impressive 4.48 40 at this years combine and could potentially see some work on the outside when Megatron kicks into the slot.
It is not crazy to think Josh Huff could push Riley Cooper as soon as this year. We all knew Cooper was at best a number four receiver for a good team coming into 2013 and despite his talent limitations he showed well as a number two when forced into action due to injury. Don’t expect a repeat performance with Jordan Matthews and Josh Huff in town. Huff is a strong blocker and is willing to make the tough catches over the middle of the field while putting his body on the line which leads one to believe that he will see some time in the slot pushing Matthews to the outside. Huff also has the talent to play on the outside and could see some fantasy value in 2013. Huff projects as a flex option with WR3 upside by 2015.
De’Anthony Thomas should have a year one role for the Chiefs and would be ranked much, much higher if Alex Smith was anything more than a puffed up game manager. Thomas has legit upside in Andy Reid’s offense and could be a very valuable asset as a gadget player once Jamaal Charles moves on from the Chiefs in 2016 or 2017. Thomas projects as a player with deep league flex2 upside with Charles in town.
Kevin Norwood projects as a slot weapon for the Seahawks and may see some playing time in year one. Norwood will be no more than a flex2 as long as Harvin and Lynch are in town but may push for WR3 status once Lynch moves on from Seattle.
Devin Street will battle for number three duties in Dallas and is our favorite to win that job over Cole Beasley. The 6’3 Street would allow Bryant to kick into the slot and exploit mismatches. If named full time number three Street could push for flex2 numbers in year one and flex numbers in 2015 and beyond.
Robert Herron seems to have an easy path to slot duties in Tampa Bay. Herron is not expected to see many targets in the Bucs run first offense but could prove to be a solid, upside bye week filler until the Bucs get a new QB or Vincent Jackson moves on from the team.
Brandon Coleman is a little raw but has monster size at 6’6 and decent enough speed to be an impact receiver behind Brandin Cooks and Kenny Stills. Coleman fits the mold and upside of the 50/50 ball receiver that Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin and Alshon Jeffery present.
Lorenzo Taliaferro has the chance to be the biggest riser in these rankings if he can wow us in the preseason and Ray Rice is suspended for more than two contests. Rice’s suspension will ostensibly allow either Pierce or Taliaferro to run away with the feature job but they will really have to impress as a healthy Ray Rice is still one of the top running backs in the league. Lorenzo is a good fit for Gary Kubiak’s system but may not have the receiving chops for an every-down role which will allow Ray Rice to get back in the picture following his suspension. Taliaferro projects as a solid handcuff with RB3 upside.
Jeff Abbrederis was a productive college receiver who absolutely torched first round corner Bradley Roby for 207 yards and a touchdown off of ten receptions which indicates he should be a lock to make the Packers. Abbrederis probably will not see a big role in 2014 but could be a difference maker in 2015 when Jordy Nelson is expected to bolt in free agency.
Colt Lyerla is an athletic tight end who is not expected to make the redraft impact of fellow rookie Richard Rodgers but has the most upside of all the Packers current tight ends from a dynasty perspective. Lyerla does not project as an every-down player due to below average in-line blocking and will play limited snaps in 2014 though his snaps will increase as he learns the playbook and improves his blocking prowess.
Jalen Saunders projects as a gadget player in the vein of Tavon Austin albeit with less talent. Saunders will be relegated to the slot and the backfield but could become an impact player if the Jets can creatively scheme for him. Geno Smith may have found his new Tavon Austin.
