While it is true that offensive lineman also change fantasy dynamics, we will focus on skill players only in our analysis of round 1:
Round 1 was not devoid of surprises such as McLain to the Raiders and C.J Spiller’s name being called by the Bills, all the way to Dez Bryant taking a Randy Moss type free-fall only to end up with the Dallas Cowboys. Tebow going before Clausen also qualifies as a major surprise, but on to the fantasy analysis:
Sam Bradford to the Rams: They must be kicking themselves after realizing they could have drafted Clausen at the start of round 2, FAT contract notwithstanding, Bradford will help the fantasy values of Steven Jackson, Laurent Robinson and Donnie Avery and whatever other wide receiver they add in the later rounds of the draft (Mardy Gilyard). Bradford may not get a chance to start right away as many have called for, and instead may take seat until bye week. Avoid him on draft day, unless of course you are in a dynasty or keeper league.
The first skill player taken after Bradford was C.J Spiller: Spiller will immediately assume a Reggie Bush like role, while the Bills determine if Spiller is more Bush or more Chris Johnson. The Bills are denying wanting to trade Marshawn Lynch and I think a three-back rotation may prove useful a la the New Orleans Saints. Spiller grades out as the most talented of the three backs, and will seriously put a dent in Fred Jackson’s fantasy value as he was the former third-down back, a role likely to be handed to Spiller due to his superior hands. I am all for a Lynch-Spiller time-share, but rumour has it that Lynch is one his way out of Buffalo regardless of what Buddy Nix says in the media. He should be a solid flex play this season.
Next we had the Chargers trading up to select WMFL favorite Ryan Matthews. Matthews is perhaps the most complete back in this draft and had Spiller not gone to the Bills, may have been the 1st back taken as the Chargers were looking for a power back to be their new feature back. Ryan Matthews projects to be the starter barring injury and should be a 2nd to 3rd round fantasy talent and should be a solid RB2 and a must-have RB3. Keep in mind though that Darren Sproles is still under contract and will be stealing some touches on passing downs. We expect a 70-30 timeshare in favour of Matthews.
The Denver Broncos shocked many by making Demaryius Thomas the 1st wide receiver taken in the draft. It is not that surprising considering they just jettisoned Brandon Marshall and were likely scared off by Dez Bryant’s red flag character issues. Thomas is an elite vertical threat and should play 1B to Eddie Royal’s 1A, in what should be an interesting offense with their other first round addition. Thomas’ size/speed combination and lack of red flags make this a prudent pick for a young coach who does not need to or seem to be able to deal with diva personalities. Thomas should warrant flex consideration.
Dez Bryant slid all the way to the Cowboys. which are basically his hometown team. The slide must have been agonizing for the Bryant camp, but ending up on Dallas with Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Miles Austin, and, er, Roy Williams, make this one of the most dangerous receiving corps in the league. UPGRADE Tony Romo folks, big time! He is a solid flex play and should flirt with high-end WR3 status by mid-season.
The Denver Broncos again shocked by taking Tim Tebow when Jimmy Clausen was still on the board. Tim Tebow is a bit of a project, but developing him is likely a challenge Josh McDaniels relishes. With Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn as his only competition, we may see Tebow take snaps this year, if only as part of wildcat package. My suggestion to McDaniels is let the young’n’s battle it out, make Kyle Orton the clipboard holder who is capable of starting if both of your young quarterbacks fall on their faces. He should have very little to no fantasy value this year barring a meltdown by both Quinn and Orton (which is not at all out of the question).
Jahvid Best: Ok, ok, so we have all heard the snickers. The Lions draft a back coming off an injury and now have their top two backs coming off injury. The Lions run game has just got some serious help, with Kevin Smith already becoming a major fantasy factor, the Lions went out and got a home-run hitting speed back to put on the field with Megatron and Stafford. Once Kevin Smith returns this two headed monster may become one of the most electrifying in the league. Best is an RB3 and may approach RB2 level depending on Kevin Smith’s recovery.
