Rizzla takes a look at the Giants stunning trade of Odell Beckham Jr., to the Cleveland Browns, and examines the fantasy context.
Absolute stunner. That is the only way to describe the New York Giants trading away Odell Beckham Jr. While this was a burning hot rumor for a couple of hours last Wednesday, this still comes as a shock to the collective systems of NFL fans the world over. First reported by NFL network’s Mike Garafolo, Adam Schefter broke the details of the deal.
Here are the trade terms: Giants recieve a first-round pick in 2019 (No. 17 overall), the Browns' second third-round pick this year and S Jabril Peppers, source tells ESPN. Browns get Odell Beckham Jr.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 13, 2019
This is an all-in move for a Cleveland Browns team that has been loading up this offseason. The Browns re-signed Breshad Perriman earlier today, and added a pro bowl talented in Kareem Hunt earlier this offseason. They have also added some key defensive pieces, but this is supposed to be about OBJ. This is huge news for the Cleveland Browns, and has to energize a much maligned fanbase. The Browns clearly won this trade despite giving up three valuable assets. OBJ is arguably the best receiver in football, and is only 26 years old, so it would be difficult to lose a trade when you are the one acquiring him.
The New York Giants are on some ish. I don’t know how else to say it. Trading away one of the best players in all of football signals that a rebuild is on the way. To be fair the Giants got a fair return in a 1st round pick, a 3rd round pick, and former first round pick in 23 year old Jabrill Peppers. That is essentially two 1sts and a 3rd, as Peppers is the same age as some of this years rookie class. However when you trade away one of the best players in football, in the eyes of many, you are probably going to lose just about any trade.
Fantasy Context:
Odell Beckham Jr., is one of the best players in football. Not just at his position. A terrific route runner who goes 100 percent on every play, OBJ is going to light the world on fire in Cleveland. Brown leads all players with at least 315 receptions since 2014 with an 11.3 percent TD rate. Odell remains an elite WR1 but should now re-enter the conversation to be the first receiver off the board. I already had OBJ as my second overall dynasty wide receiver so I won’t be moving him up any further, but he has seen both his immediate and long term outlooks now boast a much higher floor. Leaving a two time Super Bowl champ to join a player who just finished his rookie season will not often be viewed as an upgrade, but in this case it is. This is likely going to be the height of OBJ fever, so owners should not be looking to buy at this point in time, as the price tag will be prohibitive.
Baker Mayfield is the biggest winner here. Already one of the more exciting quarterbacks in the league, the talented signal caller now has upper echelon upside. He is now a top eight option in dynasty, and a top ten option in redraft. Mayfield has the tools, talent, and moxie to become one of the NFL’s elite, and he now has the weapons to realize his potential. Mayfield is undoubtedly very excited and with good reason. Mayfield is an exceptional talent who is going to see his ADP rise rapidly.
Odell Beckham's most frequent routes vs Baker Mayfield.
*Baker Mayfield threw TDs on over 14% of slant targets w Kitchens as OC. That is insane. That is also the route Beckham was targeted most on in 2018. pic.twitter.com/qwGfAcbiac
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 13, 2019
Jarvis Landry is a big beneficiary here. Landry will now likely see a larger percentage of his snaps in the slot in three wide sets, and will be able to dominate in single coverage across from his former LSU teammate. Landry will still vie for the team lead in targets, but is going to be seeing much easier coverages. Landry, like OBJ is a terrific route runner who will be able to thrive with his new found target quality and separation. Landry is an high upside WR2, who has seen his floor raised with this move.
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will undoubtedly benefit from this trade. An elite passing attack will take defenders out of the box, giving both backs more room to run. Neither truly sees a value increase with this news.
David Njoku loses some of his shine with this move. Njoku disappointed when he was the second best ‘receiver’ on the team, and will now have to take a backseat to both OBJ and Landry. Njoku is still a talent laden tight end, but is going to have to be more efficient to provide any sort of consistent value. Njoku now profiles more as a low end TE1 in redraft, and a mid tier TE1 in dynasty.
Antonio Callaway and Breshad Perriman are the big losers here. Both receivers will be competing for snaps in three wide sets, and are set to serve the same type of role. Both now profile as upside bench depth in redraft, and take a significant stumble in dynasty leagues.
Update: Perriman and the Browns mutually agreed to forgo contract and he will now sign with Tampa Bay. Callaway is now an intriguing boom or bust option in redraft leagues. He profiles as bench depth and bye week filler. His dynasty stock is still depressed with this news, but he now has a much higher floor.
Eli Manning is now nothing more than bench depth in redraft leagues, including superflex. In dynasty his value has hit an all-time low as a QB who is expected to see his eventual replacement drafted this April. Barring some exciting offseason additions Manning is now a QB3 for all intents and purposes.
Sterling Shepard is a big winner here. For now. As of this writing Shepard is the Giants number one receiver. It would be folly to think they will not add some competition in the draft at the very least, if not in the coming hours and days in free agency. Shepard has shown flashes and currently profiles as a low end WR3 with low end WR2 upside.
Some more numbers for you for Sterling Shepard & Evan Engram without Odell Beckham in the line-up. Assuming no other moves for NYG, I’ll have Shepard as a borderline top 20 guy & Engram Top 7 TE. pic.twitter.com/YYUyV2hy3T
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR) March 13, 2019
Evan Engram’s value is going to go through the roof in drafts that occur in the next few weeks. Engram has always been a stud with OBJ out of the lineup. However it would be asinine to think the Giants will not add some receiver help either through free agency or the draft, if not both. With that said Engram averaged 5.5 receptions and had at least 75 yards per game with OBJ out of the lineup. This helps in highlighting his upside if the Giants go full tank mode and decline to add anyone at all. As we know Gettleman will not settle for a QB, so it could be rationalized that he will not settle when it comes to finding receivers either. Engram remains a TE1 option in all formats.
Saquon Barkley remains the top fantasy running back, and consensus first overall pick. Barkley is going to undoubtedly see more men in the box, which could cause some consistency issues. Barkley averaged on 3.9 yards per carry against stacked boxes in 2018, and is an area he will look to improve on with the Giants bringing in offensive line help in free agency.
