Week Four ATS Play of the Week
As we do yearly we will take a look at games from a couple of weeks in the season and try to use a fantasy football angle when dissecting which games we like best. Knowing that the entire Jaguars offense may get a boost with Blake Bortles starting in week four or that Washington’s secondary is decimated with the loss of DeAngelo Hall will help when evaluating games for potential value.
As always the lines come out Sunday night and as you can see with the Week Four Odds here there is some value in making a play early rather than waiting until closer to gameday as the lines will change based on the money coming in on either side. When projecting games we like to look at teamrankings.com and ESPN’s Pick Center to find initial value than utilizing our fantasy football player injury and trend knowledge to glean further insight to potential value plays.
Atlanta over Minnesota (-3)
This is one of the biggest value plays of the week with the Vikings offense still reeling from the loss of Adrian Peterson and Kyle Rudolph and Terry Bridgewater currently slated to get his first start of the season for the Vikings. While we are fans of Bridgewater here at Win My Fantasy League we obviously liked him a lot more with AP there to relieve the pressure and allow for easier looks from opposing defenses in pass coverage. The loss of Rudolph just exacberated the situation and makes this a serious value play whose line should change very quickly as the sharp money comes in on the Falcons. Atlanta has been hot to start the season and have really sparked their offense and special teams with the addition of Devin Hester. We like the value here especially at the current line as even a field goal win would still get you the push. The Falcons defense is still leaky but we like the Falcons to outscore the Vikings by at least a touchdown as their offense will have a hard time keeping up with the offensive output of Matt Ryan and co.
Bonus Play
Colts over Titans (-6.5)
There looks to be some initial value here at the current line as a one touchdown lead will get you the cover. The Colts looked exceptional in week three against the hapless Jaguars and should continue to assert their dominance against a struggling Titans team that lost by 27 to the Bengals. The Colts are at home in this one and we suspect the line will shoot up to 7 or 7.5 by game-time so get in on this one early.
Note: Line has changed to 7 already by Monday morning
