Week Four NFL Against the Spread Leans
I will start by saying we are a fantasy site and are better equipped to advise on player props such as the Alec Ogletree total tackles over/under seven that was offered last night, or the Dez Bryant or Heath Miller overs this weekend, but week four offers some opportunities for the casual bettor and we would like to highlight them for any of you who may be so inclined to place a small wager on a game or two this weekend.
There are a few games we like so we will list them in order:
Seattle over Houston (-1.5): Anyone who has watched any Texans game knows they have been struggling mightily despite being rock solid on both sides of the ball. The Texans are a 2-1 team but are a lucky break or two away from an 0-3 record. With the team struggling there is no reason they should only be 1.5 point dogs against a terrific Seahawks team. Seattle is boasting a excellent .434 points per play while the Texans are only managing .327 which places them in the bottom half of the league in this metric. When it comes to points per play margin on this young season the Seahawks lead the league with 0.3 while the Texans are ranked 29th with -0.3. Advanced metrics aside the long and the skinny here is that the Texans are hosting a surging Seahawks team while experiencing struggles of their own. This line is destined to jump by game day, get your pick in before the ‘casuals’ jam the book with their last minute bets.
KC over Giants (-4): On paper this seems like a match up the Giants should win. However with the Giants struggling to find any semblance of an offense due to a horrid run game the Chiefs defense should have a field day. The Chiefs had the most pro bowlers last year despite being a piss poor team on the offensive side of the ball and their defense has made a major leap into national consciousness after three straight weeks of dominance. KC is third in the league in the points per play margin analytic with a 0.2 mark while the Giants are currently sitting 31st in the league at -0.2. It is hard to see the Giants continuing to struggle all year with all of the offensive talent they boast but facing an elite defense it is easy to envision at least one more week of struggles, especially since they are playing in Arrowhead.
Was over Raiders (-3.5): The Washington team has struggled thus far this season but should be able to cakewalk against a Raiders team who is slated to be missing Terrelle Pryor. Pryor opened up the run game for McFadden which in turn helped open up the pass game, if Flynn is under center the offense becomes more predictable and anaemic and may struggle to put up points even against the struggling Redskins D. A Matt Flynn start may be exactly what the doctor ordered for the Washington team to get on track. Washington and Oakland boast similar points per play at .332 and .326 respectively, but the Raiders numbers are with the exciting Pryor not vanilla scheme Flynn. We suggest waiting until Pryor is officially ruled out for this one before taking the plunge.
Most of you may already have a favorite sportsbook but we like to suggest jumping back and forth from some of the top books in order to make use of the deposit bonuses offered by various books.
