By Justin Hasan
Kevin Durant beat out Lebron James as the top ranked player this year in standard 8 category leagues. They have very similar stats; the difference being Durant’s 90% free throw shooting and Lebron 8.6 assists per game. Lebron’s assist advantage (Durant only average 2 per game), makes King James the clear number 1 fantasy pick while Durant becomes the clear number 2.
Now the 3rd pick is not as clear cut. Here are the front runners:
Dwyane Wade: He was the season averaged 7th ranked player this year (based on the standard 8 category league) despite averaging less than a three-pointer and 3.3 turnovers per game. Throughout the season, Wade carried the Miami Heat to the 5th spot in the Eastern Conference, but he received absolutely no help from his teammates in their playoff series against loss to the Boston Celtics. What we did see is Wade’s ability to knock down the three. During the regular season we saw Wade gradually extend his shooting range, but in the playoffs he made gigantic strides. D-Wade shot an amazing 40% from beyond the arc, knocking down 15 threes over 5 games. I expect Wade to improve to 1.5 three-pointers per game next year. Whether Miami adds Chris Bosh or whether Wade moves to a contender, he should definitely have a better supporting cast next year. The last time Wade had a supporting cast was when Shaq helped bring the Heat a Championship. So with his likely improved supporting cast, look for Wade to return to 49% field goal shooting next year.
Dirk Nowitzki: One of the most consistent fantasy players over the past 5 years, Dirk is a durable, high scoring player who contributes in every category. He was the season averaged 4th ranked player this year. First off, if your league does not include the turnover category, his value drops significantly because he is the only player in the top 10 to average less than 2 turnovers per game (the other big scorers average at least 2.5 per game). But even if turnover is a category in your league, keep in mind that this (along with his 91.5% free throw shooting) are some key reasons that he is ranked so high every year. This year he made a career low 0.6 threes per game and generated his lowest rebound output (7.7 per game) in the last 10 years. Sure maybe the acquisition of Brendan Haywood, Shawn Marion, and Caron Butler took away a few boards from Dirk, but it is more likely that the 12 full seasons are finally starting to take a toll on Dirk.
Chris Paul: The top ranked fantasy player over the past 2 seasons, CP3 went through two significant injuries that kept him out of 37 games this year. In the games he did play, Paul was the season averaged 3rd ranked player in standard 8 category leagues. Once again he dominated the assist (10.7 per game) and steal (2.1 per game) categories, as no other player in the top 15 averaged over 2 steals or 10 assists per game. His only weakness could be his durability. He actually ended the season with a third significant injury – middle finger ligament tear. Keep in mind that CP3 played at least 78 games in the two previous years, so I am not declaring him to be an injury-prone guy.
The durability issue may move Wade slightly ahead of CP3 in the rankings. Yes, Wade has also has had his share of injuries, playing 51 games in both the 2006-07 and 2007-08 seasons. However, the 2007-08 season was the injury plagued year where Miami essentially shut Wade down for the year as they had no chance in making the playoffs. So with Wade’s likely increase in threes, the durability edge, and the fact that he should shoot better with an improved supporting cast, I would rank Wade as #3 for now. Chris Paul would be slightly behind at #4 and Dirk Nowitzki would be #5. I am one of the biggest CP3 fans so depending on where Wade ends up this offseason, Paul could move back up to #3.
