Your 5th Pick NFL Fantasy Draft Kit

It is unanimous, amongst the three most popular fantasy football sites the first four picks in the 2010 draft (standard league format) are:

No big deal, unless you get the fifth pick in your league’s draft day where you will have to make one of the toughest decisions of the month. The same top three fantasy football sites all disagree on who they would choose after the four fantasy beasts:

There is a serious RB tier drop-off after Turner and Gore are drafted as the next top-ranked players include Shonn Greene (Jets) – with limited pro experience – and Ryan Mathews (Chargers) – an unproven rookie. Both have high ceilings but are not yet battle tested.  On the other end of the spectrum we have the tried-and-true Steven Jackson (Rams) and DeAngelo Williams (Panthers).  The problem is that S-Jax’s own team, or lack thereof, prevents him from scoring, while D’Will has a near equal timeshare with Johnathan Stewart.

For the sake of fantasy survival you need to pick Turner or Gore, there are too many uncertainties with the 2^nd tier of running backs and unless your league rewards 6 points per passing touchdown, Brees should NOT be your 5^th pick. This is not a slight to Brees, but instead, a necessary precaution that should be taken due to the lack of RBs after the most elite are taken.  Stay tuned for the WinMyFantasyLeague.com Drew Brees versus Aaron Rodgers debate.

Now that we have eliminated Brees from the 5^th pick scenario, let’s discuss Michael Turner.

After carrying the ball 376 times in 2008-09 for career-high numbers, many thought Michael the Burner Turner would slow down the following season.  Instead, he scores 10 touchdowns and powers his way through 871 yards in just 10 games, shortly before going down with an ankle injury. Perhaps it was his absence from last year’s fantasy playoffs that left a bad taste in the mouth of many 2009-10 owners of ESPN.com and NFL.com leagues as he is now ranked 9^th and 7^th, respectively.  Others may even point to his lack of catching ability, relegating him to the sidelines on most third downs. I beg to differ.

The Burner Turner goes through the opposing line like an untamed wildfire. Over the past two seasons, he has averaged over one touchdown per game.  Atlanta has one of the top offensive lines, and Matt Ryan’s progression, along with premier receivers, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, should open it up for Turner. The Falcons have a nearly extinct running style where their main Running Back is really their only Running Back.  You won’t hear words like ‘handcuff,’  ‘timeshare,’ or ‘goal line vulture’ when talking about the Falcons because it is all Michael Turner.  Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood should only enter the game to give Turner a breather.  The Burner Turner has the ideal depth chart situation, a top offensive line, a rising QB, solid receiving corps, talent and less mileage than Gore to return to his 2008-09 domination.  Michael Turner is my fifth pick.

Why not Frank Gore, you say? While Frank Gore has been a dependable workhorse over the past four years, his team held him back from ever getting double digit TDs until his most recent season under the Mike Martz system where he managed a career year.  Still, from a fantasy perspective, there is unrest in the 49er camp…let’s call it Brian Westbrook.  Soon after Glenn Coffee called it quits, Brian Westbrook signed with the 49ers.  A backup for the first time in his career, Westbrook – 1 year removed from a 14-touchdown year where he accumulated over 1300 yards – can actually benefit from the supporting role of spelling Frank Gore. Last year, Gore managed a career high of 14 total touchdowns, averaging exactly half of that over the first four years of his career. It would be a fair estimate to say that his scores will decrease this year. Also a friendly reminder that Gore has not played a full season since 2006,  so in effort to keep Gore fresh for the second half of the season, coach Mike Singletary may be inclined to use Westbrook more liberally. If Westbrook can manage to put his concussions behind him, Gore could be taken down a few notches. Gore is my 6^th pick after Michael Turner.

Written by Justin Hasan exclusively for WinMyFantasyLeague.com

Comment below or e-mail him at Justin.Hasan@WinMyFantasyLeague.com

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