2018 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Sleepers and Busts
Michael Crabtree – Currently the 28th receiver off the board in Yahoo! drafts Crabtree seems destined to outperform his draft position. Flacco is all about throwing to who is open which is good news for a player like Mike who can run routes with the best of them and has some of the strongest hands in the league at the wide receiver position. Flacco and Crabtree have already developed a rapport in Baltimore’s overhauled receiver corps and the presence of a healthy John Brown will only open things up for Crabtree underneath. Crabtree seems to have a high floor in his high volume role for the Ravens and should finish no worse than top-20 on the season with the upside to finish in the top-12 as a WR1.
Jordy Nelson – With Martavis Bryant possibly facing another suspension and recently being called out by Jon Gruden while Jordy Nelson has been praised by local beat writers it is not hard to figure out who will be starting opposite Amari Cooper come week one. Now this is not the Packers Nelson capable of weekly WR1 numbers but he should have some great weeks feasting against single coverage across from Cooper. Nelson has a current expert consensus ranking of 46 and should far outplay that with WR3 numbers looking like his floor for our #32 ranked receiver.
Donte Moncrief – The Jaguars have a talented receiver room; from Westbrook to Cole to Lee to rookie D.J Chark the Jaguars are seemingly loaded on talent, but none of them is more talented than former Indianapolis Colt Donte Moncrief. Moncrief was criminally misused by Andrew Luck and faced a lost season with Jacoby Brissett only capable of supporting one fantasy receiver. And while the truth is Blake Bortles is no more above average than Brissett is, he is indeed the better passer. Bortles has proven he can support a minimum of two fantasy starts and with a big bodied speedster like Moncrief who can high point catches Bortles may have found him his new Allen Robinson. Moncrief like Robinson has never been short on talent but has like Robinson faced health issues which have hurt his numbers. Currently the 76th receiver off the board based on average ADP it seems fantasy owners have forgot he signed a $9.6 million dollar contract. You don’t pay that to wide receiver him unless you plan to feature him and feed him, alot.
Busts
TY Hilton – It seems like I am writing this every year. While Hilton is a top talent at the wideout position he is used as a deep threat too often limiting his weekly upside and consistency. The classic weekly boom or bust option Hilton is ranked so high because he is the games premier deep threat and because he can operate on all levels of the field when given the opportunity. With the Colts run game still not scaring opposing defensive coordinators Hilton will face weekly bracket coverage and while he is talented enough to get loose the rest of the offense will have to step up for Hilton to meet his ECR of #10 or his ADP of 13.7. His Yahoo draft position as the 18th receiver off the board is more in line of what we expect from him as we currently have him ranked 22nd overall at the wide receiver position.
Cooper Kupp – Kupp is currently the 38th receiver off the board based on ADP and is the #35 receiver based on ECR. Now while Kupp has the talent to live up to that draft position it will take a season long defensive meltdown or an injury to Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks or Robert Woods for him to realize that potential. Kupp does have upside but his floor has him ranked as more of a WR4/flex option than a WR3. Again this is not an indictment of Kupp’s talent rather an observation based ranking factoring in target opportunity and catch efficiency.
Chris Hogan – I will be upfront and say I have Hogan ranked as my #60 overall receiver which means I view him as a solid depth option/bye week filler/injury replacement but would not be comfortable starting him on a week to week basis save for during Julian Edelman’s suspension. I had Hogan higher earlier in the year but was forced to move him down with the signing of Eric Decker. Decker is not done by any stretch of the imagination and will be starting across from Edelman when he returns to the field. The fact that Cordarelle Patterson and Phillip Dorsett are making camp noise only tempers expectations even more add to that the drafting of running back Sony Michel to add to receiving specialist back James White and it is easy to see why we view him as more of a WR5 than the 29th overall receiver his ADP suggests or the 25th overall receiver his ECR seems to allude to.
