The answer to this one is simple…Ben Tate.
Ben Tate is a physical marvel and posted the best speed score of any running back in the 2010 draft class.
His season ended before it started and this allowed Arian Foster to have the backfield all to himself.
Now while Foster definitely has the talent to be one of the first backs off the board, Tate’s talent has us weary enough that we will be avoiding him in drafts all together unless he falls into the 2nd round.
Foster will still be the lead back in the backfield to start the season but a 60-40 time-split seems like a certainty with the possibility of a 50-50 split by mid-season, health permitting of course.
Not to take anything away from Arian Foster who amassed over 1,600 yards rushing and 600 yards receiving last season but he will simply not have the same workload in 2011 which will lead to a decrease in production.
With Tate healthy Foster should not see much more than 250 carries on the season which at the same 4.9 clip would give him just over 1,200 yards rushing.
Foster will also see less work in the passing game with Tate and Slaton to steal targets as well as a likely new wideout which should give Matt Schaub yet another target to spread the ball to. Owen Daniels is also healthy and will steal some of the short-yardage work.
The above mentioned stats would make Foster a top-10 rusher based on last years rushing totals, but would see him land far from the top of the list.
So, really, avoiding Foster in the 1st round of 2011 drafts has less to do with Foster and more to do with Tate.
Ben Tate that is…
