Sony Michel comes in this week with a CPP of $294 and a salary of only $4,500. Expected to see in the realm of 20 touches this week Michel projects as one of the top DraftKings values this week. With Rex Burkhead placed on IR Michel should finally get a chance to see a featured role. While James White will still see plenty of action, Michel is built like a power back and boasts an every down skill set and should see work in both the run and pass games this week against the Dolphins. Vegas has the Patriots as seven point favorites in this contest which means Michel could see a fantasy value buoying stretch in the fourth quarter as the Patriots attempt to burn some clock. While the Dolphins defense is welcoming back Rashad Jones this week their front seven was dealt a major blow when William Hayes famously tore his ACL in week threes contest versus the Oakland Raiders and was lost for the season. We project Michel to tally north of 17 carries, 90 rushing yards and five receptions for 50 yards with at least one total touchdown. Start Michel where possible.
Aaron Jones despite his talent versus the rest of the Packers backfield comes into week four with a CPP of $306 and a total salary of just $4,100. Jones is a solid value this week against the Buffalo Bills despite the potential dreaded RBBC in Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers once again went on record gushing about “number 33” and there is nothing like your hall of fame quarterback singing your praises to the media to get you motivated to have a big game. The Packers are comfortable 9.5 point favorites in this weeks contest which should lead to plenty of rushing opportunities for the Packers most explosive back. Jones has thoroughly outplayed fellow sophomore Jamaal Williams thus far in their young careers and would have likely been named the starter heading into this season if not for his two game suspension. Start Jones with confidence where needed.
OJ Howard comes in as our top tight end value this week with a CPP of $223 and a salary of only $3,500. Howard is currently top 20 in the NFL with 222 receiving yards (third among tight ends) and while it’s certainly maddening to watch Brate steal snap after snap, Howard has seen more snaps than Brate every week and will continue to do so in week four. Howard is seventh in the NFL among tight ends in yards per pass route with 4.44 and is second with 15.9 yards per target. Cameron Brate did play a season high in snaps in week three with 31 but OJ Howard also posted a season high in a game where the Bucs were trailing and were forced to run more plays. Howard is indeed a lower floor player due to said timeshare but he has been making the most of his opportunities coming in second in the NFL among tight ends with 2.8 fantasy points per target according to our friends over at playerprofiler.com.
Allen Robinson shows up this week with a CPP of $338 and a bargain salary of $5,900. Allen Robinson looks to be in line for a monster game this week versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in what should by all accounts morph into a shootout despite two intimidating front sevens. Robinson currently sits top 15 in the NFL with 320 air yards and is top ten in weighted opportunity rating at .69 which means Robinson is being fed like a WR1 and is due for a breakout game, luckily for us positive gameflow could lead to it being this week. There is of course the Mitch Trubisky concern but at least he has not been bullish about feeding his top receiver who sits at a top tier 26 percent target share. Look for Robinson to finally find the end zone and clear 100 yards receiving for the first time this year.
Christian Kirk who checks in this week with a CPP of $323 and a salary $3,700 emerged in week three to the tune of seven receptions off of eight targets for 90 yards. Even more promising is that Kirk looked like a favorite of new starter Josh Rosen and is destined to reside in single coverage for the rest of the 2018 campaign. Look for Josh Rosen to get the ball out in a hurry this week versus a Seahawks defense that will look to harass and collapse the pocket around the rookie signal caller. Rosen is a fearless quarterback and is willing to absorb hits to deliver strikes to his teammates which should lead to plenty of short and intermediate completions to his fellow rookie and friend Christian Kirk. Look for Kirk to rack up at least another six receptions for 80 yards and a possible end zone celebration.
While Josh Rosen is actually our top CPP value this week with a CPP of $270 and a salary of only $4,500 it is Andy Dalton who gets our recommendation this week. Dalton checks in for his game against the Atlanta Falcons with a CPP of $289 and a salary of only $5,400. We have Dalton as a top twelve option this week in what is shaping up to be a shootout against a decimated Falcons defense. The oddsmakers in Vegas set the over/under at 48 this week only for bettors to continually smash the over causing Vegas to move the line daily to where it currently sits at 53.5, now while this may mean there is little wiggle room left value wise it is a positive indication that most of the sharps inside and outside of Vegas like this one to be a high scoring affair. Dalton now has a legitimate number two receiver in Tyler Boyd and his presence will make all the difference in the world for a quarterback who has thrown for at least two touchdowns in his last four games. The Falcons will indeed look to stop the passing attack this week but down their two starting safeties with AJ Green and Tyler Boyd to deal with out wide and a Deion Jones-less linebackers corps trying to corral Giovani Bernard and Tyler Eifert there should be plenty of scoring opportunities for Who Dey nation. Start Dalton with confidence as a budget conscious, high upside QB play this week at DraftKings.
