Rizzla discusses the top daily fantasy football cost per projected point (CPP) plays for this weekend at DraftKings.
There are six weeks for DFS players to take true advantage of true, non injury spurred values in daily fantasy. The first three weeks of the season and the final four weeks of the fantasy football season (weeks 13-16). Values abound with teams now done with their bye weeks and only a handful of teams eliminated from the main slate. This is also the time of the year where glancing at surface fantasy points against no longer holds any water and a deeper analysis to see how a particular defense is doing against similar talents provides a more keen level of insight. As always we search for cost values based on our weekly rankings while looking for the hidden gem matchups that the salary creators at your favorite DFS provider may have missed.
Andrew Luck ($235 CPP; $5,800 salary)
Andrew Luck has a plus matchup this week, even if it is masquerading as a tough one. One of the hottest quarterbacks in the league with a remarkable 27 touchdowns over his last eight games, Andrew Luck is a tremendous CPP value versus a Jacksonville Jaguars defense allowing the fifteenth fewest fantasy points to enemy signal callers. With superstar corner Jalen Ramsey on the wrong side of questionable and destined to be at less than 100 percent even if he does play, the owner of three plus touchdowns in eight straight games should have another better than good fantasy day. Remember just three weeks ago Andrew Luck put up an eye opening 285 passing yards with three touchdowns versus only one interception against these same Jaguars, and that was with a healthy Jalen Ramsey. Luck will look to top his week ten line in this one as he looks to put a reeling Jaguars squad to bed early.
Saquon Barkley ($338 CPP; $7,900 salary)
Saquon Barkley has a tough test this week against a Chicago Bears defense relinquishing the second fewest fantasy points to enemy running backs. The Bears on the season as a whole are holding running backs to a meager 3.6 yards per carry and an NFL low four rushing touchdowns. Digging deeper into the Bears numbers reveals that they have faced exactly zero RB1’s so far on the season. The two high end RB2’s they faced this season were James White who put up 19 touches for 97 yards and two scores and Kerryon Johnson who racked up 20 touches for 89 yards and two scores suggesting that Barkley still has some hidden upside in this matchup even if it is not visible by taking a cursory glance at surface numbers. Barkley should threaten 100 yards from scrimmage in this contest and will look to match Johnson’s and White’s totals of two end zone plunges. Roll with Barkley as a sneaky upside contrarian play.
Phillip Lindsay ($296 CPP; $5,800 salary)
My twelfth overall running back for week thirteen, Phillip Lindsay has a tasty matchup against a Cincinatti Bengals defense allowing the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The Bengals have been demolished on the ground this season giving up the second most rushing yards and the third most rushing touchdowns. The Bengals have relinquished 118 rushing yards and touchdown and 5.6 receptions for 53 yards receiving per game to the running back position while allowing 104.1 rushing yards and a touchdown per game on the ground to the RB1 types they have faced this season (would be 125 if we count Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara’s together) at a whopping 5.43 yards per carry. As the NFL’s number two back with 5.8 yards per carry Lindsay should have a field day against a Bengals defense that may be on the field longer than usual with Andy Dalton out for the season.
Odell Beckham Jr. ($309 CPP; $7,800 salary)
Odell Beckham Jr. much like teammate Saquon Barkley, has a tough test this week as he squares off with a Chicago Bears defense giving up the fifteenth fewest fantasy points to enemy wideouts. While the Bears have held opposing WR1’s to a respectable 84.75 receiving yards per game they have done so while giving up 8.75 receptions, a number that can be devastating when talking about a receiver who is sixteenth in the NFL in yards after the catch. As a whole the Bears are relinquishing 14.6 receptions and 179.8 receiving yards per game, interest piquing numbers when taking into account OBJ’s role in the Giants offense and his massive 28 percent target share. OBJ is graded as having a neutral matchup this week with Kyle Fuller as per PFF. Fuller has been solid on the season but is not expected to shadow OBJ when he kicks into the slot where has lined up for about 25 percent of his snaps this season.
Emmanuel Sanders ($345 CPP; $6,300 salary)
Our number two CPP play of the week at wide receiver, Emmanuel Sanders has a tasty matchup on tap this week versus a Cincinnati Bengals defense allowing the twelfth most fantasy points to enemy wideouts. The Bengals have been manhandled by the talented receivers they have faced this season relinquishing 6.1 receptions, 102 receiving yards and 0.77 touchdowns per game. Rated as having a plus matchup by PFF’s WR/CB advantage metric Sanders should do some serious damage when he is lined up against slot corner Darqueze Dennard. Dennard has allowed a stunning 73 percent catch rate a number that should be music to the ears of DFS players as Sanders has proven he can have monster games in this offense when opportunity arises. The Bengals have given up the most touchdowns in the league and also the second most passing yards which further solidifies Sanders’ upside in what looks like one of the most exploitable matchups of the week.
Eric Ebron ($295 CPP; $4,200 salary)
Eric Ebron checks into week thirteen as our top CPP play due to his confusingly low $4,200 salary. Facing off against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense surrendering the twelfth most fantasy points to enemy tight ends there is very little rationale for Ebron to be eighth in DraftKings salary rank. One does not have to look too hard to see the upside in this matchup for Ebron as the Jaguars were devastated by the tight end position in their week ten loss to the Colts giving up 69 yards and two touchdowns to Ebron alone and a combined eight receptions, 133 yards and three touchdowns. Noted as the primary tight end defender by PFF, Barry Church has allowed a 70 percent catch rate on the season which is welcomed news for a player who has had concentration drop issues in the past. Always a threat to score with Jack Doyle out of the lineup Eric Ebron is second in the entire NFL with 15 end zone targets and has the highest target percentage (21%) in the end zone of players with more than 40 targets on the season while his nine end zone touchdowns lead the NFL by three scores. Ebron is shaping up as a tremendous value play this week at DraftKings.
